Climate Sense

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Delivering climate services in Australia

Michael Coughlan, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

rguably no other branch of the earth sciences has

relied more heavily on extensive, systematic long-term

observations than meteorology. The complex thermo-

dynamical nature of the atmosphere and the non-linearity of

the interactions between the various forces at play, render

meteorology a difficult topic for study using the formal equa-

tions of motion and the laws of thermodynamics. Using the

most powerful computers available, the generation of weather

and longer-term predictions relies on a vast and continuous

influx of observational data – not only from the atmosphere,

but also increasingly from the other earth system domains.

Forecasts, while more accurate and precise than ever, retain

levels of uncertainty that will never be entirely

eliminated and increase with the length of the

forecast period.

Defining the climate

The sub-discipline of climatology, which is the

study of the nature of the statistical outcomes of

weather over a period of time and the underlying

earth system forces, is also rooted in the practice of

taking systematic observations. Indeed, the original

purpose for collecting meteorological data was the

need to understand the nature of climate at a given

overnance

and

olicy

Australia has one of the most variable climates in the world and drought is common throughout much of the land. However, desiccated scenes can turn around

very rapidly with just one season of good rainfall

Image: Michael Coughlan