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as the temperature of inflow water and outflow water to and
from boilers.
Secondly, short-term and medium-term forecast numerical
models are created for predicting both inflow and outflow water
temperature on the basis of the collected information and data
analyses.
Thirdly, a one to three-day diurnal temperature forecast
model is established considering the local heat island effect.
A model for revealing the relationship of the energy-saving
temperature to heat supply in function of weather conditions is
then developed, based on thermodynamic and meteorological
principles, and the energy-saving indices are established.
Finally, a management system that incorporates heat supply
monitoring and weather forecasting is established; respective
operational platforms are created at relevant meteorological
offices for producing one to three-day weather forecast and
energy-saving temperature and heat-supply indices, and
weather information application terminals are installed at
heat suppliers. This will constitute a complete meteorologi-
cal forecast system for winter heating sectors in Beijing, which
will provide professional services for energy saving from heat
supplies.
Applications by heat suppliers
At the application terminals, the forecasts continue to be
updated every 12 hours, including diurnal air temperatures
(daytime and night time means, maximum, minimum and daily
means), heat-supply related weather indices, thermal parame-
ter forecasts, indoor and outdoor temperatures as well as
temperatures of both inflow and outflow water for the next one
to three days. With this information, in particular the temper-
ature of the water cycle for the next few days, heat supply
managers will be in a better position to calculate the total heat
supply capacity needed for a specific day, to adjust the temper-
ature of supplied water, and to anticipate the amount of fuel to
be used. This will improve heating quality, energy-saving effi-
ciency and pollution reduction.
Medium- and long-range forecasts and three to five-day fore-
casts for both the beginning and end of a heating season will
facilitate proper arrangements of fuel procurement and storage,
which helps to maximize capital use.
Assessment of the benefits of meteorological services for
heat supply
Assessments and analysis of the benefits of meteorological
services from energy saving in various heat suppliers, indicate
the following:
Meteorological Services can improve the energy efficiency of
the heat supply. Weather monitoring and forecasts provide
scientific guidance for the heating industry at both the macro
and micro levels. It is helpful to carry out heating operations
in a more targeted and timely manner, and to achieve the best
heating efficiency in a most cost-effective fashion.
Apart from the temperature, wind speed, humidity, solar radi-
ation, cloud cover and precipitation, other meteorological
elements also have an impact on the heat supply. The meteo-
rological offices need to develop forecasts about additional
meteorological elements in order to achieve greater benefits for
energy-efficient heating.
As heat supply is a weather-sensitive sector, not only are
nowcasting and short-term weather forecasts useful for deci-
sion-makers in the heating sector, but medium- and long-range
forecasts are also playing an increasing role along with the devel-
opment of forecasting capabilities.
Due to urban heat island effects and the different underlying
impacts, the existing forecasts by zone and the 24-hour mean
temperature forecast in the forthcoming one to three days does
not satisfy the actual demands for different zones during heat
supply season. With the rise of living standards and social-
economic development, there is an imperative need for more
refined and specific meteorological services.
Suggestions for improving meteorological services for
energy-saving heat supply
Enhance communication with end users – meteorological
information itself does not create values. Only its application by
the users can achieve significant socio-economic benefits.
Therefore, meteorological offices should proactively commu-
nicate with users, investigating their changing needs in order to
provide targeted meteorological information that meets their
demands.
Providing further guidance to users on the use of meteorological
information
– meteorological services yield added value when
users are fully utilizing them while avoiding their potential
risks. It is also vital that users know when such information is
disseminated. Therefore, meteorological offices should have a
clear understanding as to how users apply meteorological infor-
mation and provide them with guidance in their practical
decision-making process.
Enhance the combination of scientific research with operational
applications
– including faster transfer of scientific research to
operations. Market-oriented demands and service-oriented
products imply that meteorological services have tremendous
economic potential for the heat supply industry. However, the
simplicity of existing meteorological information can no longer
meet user needs, and current service products remain inade-
quate in terms of their depth, comprehensiveness, refinement
and flexibility. Personalized weather information can yield bene-
fits only after this information is processed and analysed
according to user requirements.
Meteorological Services bring about tremendous benefits for
energy saving in the heating sector. Regardless of the fuel used
for heating – be it coal, electricity or natural gas – the heating
industry consumes energy. According to 2001 statistics, the
application of meteorological services to heat supply could save
three to five per cent of the energy consumed. Based on an
average saving of four per cent, CNY 144 million can be saved
in Beijing in terms of expenditure on energy consumption every
year, while the ecological and environmental benefits can be
significantly increased.
In addition, there is considerable market potential for special
meteorological services. Although only a few large heating
corporations currently take full advantage of the meteorolog-
ical forecast, there will be growing demand for meteorological
information from various sectors. Meteorological offices will
play an increasingly important role in various national
economic sectors. In the rapid socio-economic development
process, and with improved meteorological offices, the general
public has an increasingly greater awareness about risks and
they will increasingly depend on meteorological information.
In particular, some weather-sensitive companies have realized
that if they want to remain well placed in the competitive
market, they should attach greater importance to meteorolog-
ical information.