Climate Exchange

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ransport

and

nfrastructure

that the port operator could take to increase the resilience of

its activities and assets over the coming decades.

There are a number of ways ports could be affected by

climate change. Risks will depend on the location (for

example, tropical or extra-tropical, areas with permafrost

or sea ice, lakes or rivers) and functions of ports (such as

cargo handling, warehousing, pilotage, dredging or passen-

ger cruises). Thanks to its location on a natural harbour,

MEB is relatively sheltered from harsh climatic and oceanic

conditions. As such, overall there are only a small number of

ways that MEB’s performance could be significantly affected

by climate change. These include:

• Reduced vehicle movements inside the port due to

seawater flooding

• Decreased global trade and US grain exports to

Colombia affecting MEB’s cargo transport revenues

• Increased risk of damage to goods stored in the port

due to flooding

• Degradation of mangroves around the port.

Other ports around the world could suffer a wider range

of risks associated with a changing climate.

Of all these expected climate change impacts,

flooding due to local sea level rise constitutes the

most serious issue for the port. Following the study,

the port announced that it would invest in additional

flood protection.

Project details

MEB is the second-largest port in the bay of Cartagena

in Colombia. Although it benefits from one of the most

secure locations on Colombia’s Caribbean coast, offering

natural shelter from high winds, high waves and storm

surges, MEB remains exposed to some of the effects of

climate change, such as sea level rise, increased rainfall

intensity and warmer temperatures.

Experts from the University of Oxford in the UK and

Universidad Nacional de Colombia assisted the team in

analysing observed climate variables and trends, as well

as climate model projections for the Cartagena region.

Climate and ocean observations clearly show that climate

change is already underway in Cartagena, where average

temperatures have risen by more than 0.7° C since the early

twentieth century, precipitation has become more intense,

and sea level has been creeping up at a rate of 5.6mma year.

However, there is a dearth of local data about short-term,

extreme weather and oceanic events such as gust winds,

heavy downpours or storm surges. Climate data analysis

is complicated in countries like Colombia by the fact that

there is so far little agreement between climate models over

future precipitation, due to complex local topography and

the lack of understanding of how tropical cyclones may

change in the future.

To overcome these limitations, the study relied on

different sources of climate data to explore a wide enve-

lope of plausible changes in climate. Where outputs

diverge between different datasets or methods, a set of

climate scenarios was considered in the risk and adapta-

tion assessment.

Interruptions to vehicle movements due to seawater flooding of the port

• Lowest area: causeway linking mainland and island sites (0.6m above port

plan datum)

• Causeway projected to flood at highest tides by 2018 and 2015 (observed

and accelerated SLR scenarios).

• Mainland patio and storage warehouses projected to flood at highest tides

by 2070 and 2050 (observed and accelerated SLR scenarios).

• Quays not projected to flood.

Source: International Finance Corporation

Projected flooding (areas in blue) during highest spring tides and highest water

level in 2050 in the observed (middle) and accelerated (bottom) scenarios

Mean sea level at MEB in 2000