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Development of climate services in Sweden
to support climate change adaptation
Lena Lindström and Elin Löwendahl, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
I
n 2005 the Swedish Government established a Commission
on Climate and Vulnerability. The Commission analysed
how Sweden’s climate may develop over the next hundred
years as well as the consequences of climate change for a number
of societal sectors. Its work resulted in the 2007 report ‘Sweden
Facing Climate Change – Threats and Opportunities’, with
various assignments to authorities as well as other activities
and measures concerning adaptation to climate change. In 2009
this was followed up by the Governmental bill, ‘A Coordinated
Policy for Climate and Energy,’ which addressed the challenges
identified in the commission’s final report.
Climate change adaptation at the regional level
In 2009 the Swedish Government designated the county
administrative boards in Sweden to coordinate climate change
adaptation work on a regional level. Sweden is divided into 21
counties, each with a county administrative board. These are
governmental bodies working in direct and continuous contact
with the people they serve. They have a unique position in
the Swedish democracy as important links between people
and municipalities on the one hand, and the Government and
central authorities on the other.
At the same time as the county administrative boards got
their assignments in 2009, the Government gave the Swedish
Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) the task of
supporting boards with climate change information in order to
facilitate their coordinative and knowledge disseminative role.
Within this assignment, SMHI has developed and provided differ-
ent types of climate services on national and regional level. Among
other things, SMHI has provided climate and climate change
information such as climate indicators on, for example, yearly
temperature anomalies, events of extreme precipitation, annual
precipitation, changes in sea level, wind, global radiation, sea ice
extent and the length of the vegetation period. Visualizations of
the historical and projected future climate on county level are also
provided on the SMHI website. Similar information is provided
specifically for hydrological catchment areas and regions used in
the delivery of weather forecasts. SMHI has also provided advice
on how to interpret climate information and reviewed material
such as regional climate change adaptation decision-support
material produced by the county administrative boards, as well
as presenting lectures at seminars and workshops in the counties.
Addressing the uncertainties surrounding future climate scenarios
is essential in the dialogue both between SMHI and the county
administrative boards, and in the county administrative boards’
communication with the municipalities.
Development of climate services in Sweden
As a part of climate services in Sweden, SMHI provides
climate scenarios on the national and regional (sub-
national) scales. Until now these scenarios have been
based on some of the emission scenarios from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special
Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), a selection of
global climate model projections and regional climate
modelling. One of the challenges has been how to
explain both the SRES scenarios and climate modelling
to different users, especially in the context of consid-
ering the overall climate change scenario uncertainty.
Also, there has been a great demand for information on
how climate scenarios can best be interpreted, includ-
ing their limitations. The channels for communication
that support the scenario provision have mainly been
reports and fact sheets, the SMHI website, and infor-
mation delivered in meetings and seminars. The best
outcome has been from meetings in which scientists
and stakeholders have truly shared experiences, ideas,
questions, answers and overall information.
In 2008 SMHI and the Swedish Geotechnical
Institute (SGI) visited the 21 county administrative
boards to map needs and expectations regarding
climate services provided by the national authorities.
Since then, SMHI and SGI have organized thematic
meetings with the regional climate change adaptation
coordinators, in collaboration with additional national
authorities. The aim has been a continuous process of
exchanging experiences and discussing climate change
adaptation activities.
During 2012, updated regional climate scenarios
have been derived from more recent global and regional
climate models, with the climate forcing scenarios
being based on the new Representative Concentration
Pathways. Many of the earlier challenges to the provi-
sion of supporting information will remain even with
the new scenarios.
SMHI will continue to approach the users of climate
scenario information and maintain the dialogue in
order to expand perspectives on useful ways to present
updated climate scenarios. Developing pedagogic and
efficient ways to present the new scenarios, including
how they relate (similarities, differences) to the earlier
ones, is of great importance, and so is the dialogue with
stakeholders on how to select a scenario or scenarios
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ommunities