Climate Exchange

[

] 253

apacity

evelopment

and intense rainfall. During the monsoon season, all four models

projected an increase in the percentage of days with temperatures

above 35 °C over the entire Maharashtra region, with a large reduc-

tion in the percentage of days recording less than 25 °C.

Looking at three sub-regions of western, eastern and central

Maharashtra, there is a clear increase in the number of extremely warm

days consistent with an increase of approximately 1.5° C to 3° C.

The number of days with ‘high’ or ‘very high’ rainfall (greater

than 25 millimetres per day) is projected to increase over the

Maharashtra region across all four projections, while the number

of days with ‘low’ to ‘moderate’ rainfall is expected to reduce.

This suggests an increase in the region’s monsoon rainfall in a

warmer future climate, and is consistent with the other results.

An increase in the frequency of extremely high rainfall events will

further threaten Maharashtra with the risk of severe and wide-

spread floods.

In summary, all four projections for the Maharashtra region

suggest a warmer, wetter monsoon season with more frequent days

of extremely high temperatures and intense rainfall events lasting

longer into August.

Future uses

The climate projections generated by the Met Office will be used

by TERI to provide impact assessments for various sectors, such as

water (availability and affects of more rain in the monsoon season),

agriculture (millet and sugarcane) and health (heat stress, malaria).

As also seen in Bangladesh and Singapore, the high-resolution

regional climate model implemented for this region can easily be

employed in any part of the world to provide regional climate change

information for impact assessments to inform climate policymaking.

Currently, efforts are underway at the Met Office to develop

the next generation of climate models that will take into account

various Earth system elements to provide integrated impact assess-

ments (as opposed to one-way or offline assessments).

The next version of the regional climate model will be able to

provide climate change information at a resolution of around 10

km. Such information is highly valuable for city level adaptation

planning for cities like Mumbai.

Image: Met Office (UK)

Singapore: enhancing national climate science capability

South East Asia is highly vulnerable to climate variability and climate

change – for example through flooding from tropical thunderstorms and

storm surges, coastal land loss from sea level rise, heat stress, and the

resurgence of diseases such as dengue.

In May 2011, the UK Met Office and the Meteorological Service

Singapore (MSS) started a three-year programme to enhance Singapore’s

climate science capability involving an exchange of scientists to and

from the UK. Met Office scientists are using their expertise to help MSS

and other national weather services across South East Asia analyse

the wealth of extreme weather data accumulated over the years. Led by

MSS, this project will establish a database that will be used to determine

the level of risk each country faces and assess the reliability of climate

models in the region.

An additional aim of the Met Office-MSS partnership is to produce

joint scientific papers relevant to the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report in 2013/4, covering

fundamental issues of climate change and its impacts on the South

East Asia region. By integrating MSS into IPCC processes in this way,

the Met Office is not only helping to enhance the scientific capability of

Singapore but strengthening IPCC’s process with a broader and more

comprehensive evidence base.

Consulting on observations network in Rwanda

Although the Met Office’s work in Rwanda focuses on

rebuilding the national meteorological service following

war, it further highlights the importance of a high

quality weather service for strengthening the economy

– particularly agriculture.

A Met Office consultant has just spent a year in

Rwanda working with the Rwanda Meteorological

Service through the World Meteorological

Organization’s Voluntary Cooperation Programme:

• Developing a new severe weather warning system

• Modernizing observational data processes

• Modernizing national TV weather bulletins

• Producing forecasts for radio and newspapers

• Refreshing the service’s website.