Climate Exchange

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apacity

evelopment

A range of plausible future climate outcomes were produced by

the Met Office Hadley Centre, using a perturbed physics ensem-

ble approach

which involves building a number of global climate

models consistent with current knowledge of how to represent the

climate system. Results from these global climate models were

downscaled using the Met Office’s regional climate modelling

system PRECIS at 25 km resolution. The high resolution PRECIS

data provide a level of detail relevant for exploring many impact and

vulnerability issues.

TERI focuses on impact modelling, vulnerability assessment and

case studies, and capacity building. The high-resolution climate

projections from regional climate models provided by the Met Office

have been used for impact modelling in selected sectors, and cross-

sectoral linkages were also investigated.

As climate vulnerability is highly site-specific, TERI will select six

case-study sites to conduct detailed vulnerability assessments and

propose appropriate adaptation strategies. The project is expected to

draw linkages from the case-specific findings to regional/state level

adaptation strategies, addressing the key sectors and leading to a

State Adaptation Action Plan for the Government of Maharashtra.

Advised by both the Met Office and TERI, the Government of

Maharashtra will use results from the climate projections and impact

assessments in its policy and decision-making process to agree

state-wide adaptation techniques. Through stakeholder and partner

workshops, the Met Office will play a key role in ensuring accurate

interpretation of climate projection results.

Research highlights

Maharashtra’s monsoon season is from June to September and the

study focused solely on these months as they account for roughly

70-80 per cent of the region’s rainfall. It’s a highly important season

for agricultural productivity and crop yields, water resources, and

the health and wellbeing of Maharashtra’s citizens.

Rising carbon dioxide concentrations mean that globally averaged

temperatures are continuing to increase. For Maharashtra, studies

consistently projected a temperature increase over the entire region

for the monsoon season of between 1 .5° C and 3° C for the four

models used. Such increased temperatures could lead to severe

drought, water scarcity, and reduced crop yield – all of which could

have a devastating impact on people.

In addition to increasing temperatures, we expect climate change

to alter many aspects of global and regional precipitation patterns.

For Maharashtra, all four model projections suggest an increase in

monsoon rainfall, particularly along the state’s coastlines and the

Western Ghats, with only slight decreases in rainfall seen further

inland. Strong rainfall increases, such as those seen along the

Maharashtra coast, could result in extreme flooding – drastically

reducing the state’s agricultural productivity and promoting water-

borne diseases such as cholera.

While the amount of monsoon rainfall is a key factor affecting

future adaptation strategies, any changes in the duration or intensity

of this season could have strong impacts on Maharashtra’s vulner-

ability to future climate change. Although we expect the monsoon

season to remain relatively unchanged, all four models project an

increase in the intensity of monsoon rainfall.

We project that intense rainfall events will extend further into the

final months of the season. While the present day monsoon period

produces maximum rainfall during July, our projections widen this

maximum rainfall period to both July and August. With the heavi-

est monsoon rainfall lasting longer into the monsoon

season, the threat of localized and severe flooding

events is further intensified in a warmer future climate.

Daily extremes

We looked at the projected changes in the frequency

of extreme occurrences in both high temperatures

Training at the Bangladesh University of

Engineering and Technology

A country with limited resources, infrastructure and a

dependence on subsistence agriculture, Bangladesh is also

highly vulnerable to climate change. In fact, recent studies

found that even the most aggressive emissions reduction

policies will still result in two thirds of the expected twenty-

first century sea level increase.

In 2010, the Met Office Hadley Centre ran a project called

‘Capacity Building in Climate Modelling in Bangladesh’

working with UKaid and the Climate Change Cell at the

Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

(BUET). It aimed to apply regional climate change models,

interpret their outputs and provide policymakers with the

high quality, high resolution data they need to plan for

climate change.

The project funded a modern, dedicated climate change

computer lab. This was set up within the Institute for Water

and Flood Management at BUET and includes everything

needed to run the Met Office Hadley Centre’s regional

climate modelling system PRECIS and other programs.

The facility also enabled training workshops run by Met

Office Hadley Centre scientists, and other climate change

modelling activities. It will continue to be used for modelling

in the future.

The Met Office Hadley Centre and BUET partnership has

resulted in a range of new initiatives including:

• An online discussion forum for climate modellers in

Bangladesh

• A new website for news and sharing information

• A division of responsibility for conducting the high-

resolution model runs between different institutes in

Bangladesh

• The establishment of monthly meetings of all

Bangladeshi participants to discuss progress, share

results and agree next steps.

Image: Met Office (UK)