Climate Exchange

observational datasets covering the Maharashtra region,

with particular emphasis on the monsoon season. This

information guides the interpretation and application

of the projections.

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apacity

evelopment

The climate change threat to Maharashtra

The World Bank notes that “In the state of Maharashtra, a single

drought (2003) and flood (2005) absorbed more of the budget

than the entire planned expenditure on irrigation, agriculture and

rural development from 2002–2007. Climate change is expected to

increase the frequency of extreme events.”

Covering an area of almost 308,000 square kilometres, Maharashtra

is India’s third-largest state and is home to the commercial hub of

Mumbai. Its population of almost 97 million is the country’s second-

largest. Yet despite extensive industrialization, the majority of its

population (64 per cent) works in agriculture and some 47 per cent

are living below the poverty line. The state’s high dependency on

the land, combined with a vulnerable 840 km coastline, leaves it

particularly susceptible to changing weather patterns. Key climate

changes and possible impacts include:

• Increased temperatures and altered seasonal precipitation

patterns affecting hydrological systems and agricultural

productivity

• Increased risk of severe weather events having a devastating

effect on agriculture, water resources, forestry and the wellbeing

of the population

• Coastal communities facing a serious threat from rising sea

levels – a 1 metre rise would put more than 1.3 million people

at risk.

The associated costs of climate change-related damages in Mumbai

alone could exceed US$30 billion if no action is taken.

Project strategy and key objectives

“Allowing for a range of plausible changes in local climate, rather

than using a single projection, when assesing impacts of climate

change leads to more robust development planning and policymak-

ing,” says Dr Bhaski Bhaskaran, Climate Services Manager of the Met

Office Hadley Centre.

In 2011, working in close collaboration with The Energy and

Resources Institute (TERI) of India and key funding partner the

Government of Maharashtra, the Met Office began a project called

‘Assessing climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies

for Maharashtra’. It aims to:

• Establish how climate change may affect the state

• Alleviate impact on the economy, society and people’s lives

• Share lessons learned with other similar initiatives worldwide.

The strategy focuses primarily on water resources, agriculture,

coastal areas and livelihoods. Starting with a review of second-

ary data and relevant past work, it involves collating best possible

regional climate change information from a range of projections at

25 km spatial grid, a first for the region.

Four future climate projections which characterised the range of

a larger ensemble of Met Office climate models were selected for

use. Met Office partners then analysed datasets covering the 2030s,

2050s and 2070s using various methodologies developed by TERI

to identify impacts and vulnerability and to inform policy and deci-

sion-making.

Key roles

Each of the three project partners has a key role to play. The Met

Office Hadley Centre focuses on model validation and climate

changes. Validation compares the results for key climate variables to

Source: Met Office (UK)

Each of the four models used (A, B, C and D) projected

temperature increases of between 1.5° C and 3° C for the

Maharashtra region during the monsoon season

Source: Met Office (UK)

All four model projections suggest an increase in monsoon

rainfall, particularly along Maharashtra’s coastlines and

the Western Ghats, with only slight decreases in rainfall

seen further inland in projections B and C

2 4

Projections for 2070–2099: temperature

Projections for 2070–2099: rainfall