Climate Sense

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bserving

, P

redicting

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onditions

an increased risk of extreme rainfall events in the

summer. The daily maximum temperature in the

summer and daily minimum temperature in the

winter is projected to increase by 3.8

C and 5.3

respectively. While results from dynamic downs-

caling are more skillful and sophisticated than ever

before, a key caveat is that there exists significant

uncertainty for regional climate scenarios. To reduce

the uncertainty, further research is needed.

The CRL provides regular 3-month forecast data

to KMA and the APEC Climate Center using the

Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System –

an AGCM developed by KMA. Recently, through

the Joint Program for Unified Model Collaboration

with the UK Hadley Centre, the CRL is planning to

provide 3-month ensemble forecast with the UK Met

Office. As a result of the collaboration, development

and production of 12-month forecast data by 2012 is

also in the works.

The CRL earth system model project was launched

in 2008 in order to better understand and predict

climate change and variability by improving the

current global model. The project, in its initial stage,

has completed construction of a coupled atmosphere-

ocean-sea ice model, using the OASIS coupler, UM,

and MOM4. Future plans include the development of

an integrated earth system framework – combining a

terrestrial module, an aerosol module, and a carbon

cycle and sulfate module – by 2012.

The understanding of climate science and the

quality of climate information has seen dramatic

progress of late. With information on climate change

gaining more exposure, society has come to realize its

potential importance. By tailoring available climate

information to the general public, end-users with

specific needs, and various sectors of society, the CRL

is improving the societal usefulness of climate infor-

mation. The CRL provides a wide range of climate

change and forecast information, as well as infor-

mation about climate science, to the Korean public

through the Korean Climate Change Information

Center.

The CRL has also provided climate change

scenarios and information to Korean government

organizations for their assessment reports, including

the Mitigation and Adaptation Plan from the Ministry

of Environment and Impact Assessment of the Impact

of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector, by the

Korea Rural Economic Institute.

The CRL has been active in outreach programmes to

raise the awareness of the Korean public. Although the

mission of the CRL is to further the scientific under-

standing of the climate system, it also understands the

social responsibilities and roles of scientists in inform-

ing the public and decision makers about climate

change. In addition to publishing articles in peer-

reviewed academic journals, the CRL also works with

various media outlets including magazines, newspapers,

television and radio, providing climate change science

and information. The CRL also offers presentations

model developed by MPIM. Time-slice experiments using a high-

resolution Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) suggest

that weakening of the North Pacific jet stream will occur by the

late 21st century due to global warming. The change in the jet

stream appears to be due to the decrease in latitude tempera-

ture over the Asian continent, as well as eddy activity. The same

experiment found that while the frequency of tropical cyclones

over the northwest Pacific Ocean decreases, the intensity of tropi-

cal cyclones is likely to increase.

To project regional climate change over Korea, scenarios

were generated by the CRL through dynamic downscaling using

SRES A1B and the MM5 regional models. Downscaled data was

obtained by simulating years 1971-2100 with a spatial reso-

lution of 27 kilometres. The findings show that by the end of

the 21st century, the mean surface temperature over Korea is

projected to increase by 3.8

C, and as much as 4.5

C at 400hPa.

Hot days and cold days exceeding the 95th percentile of climatic

average will increase fivefold and decrease 99 per cent respec-

tively. Precipitation is projected to increase 17 per cent, with

Climate projection using the ECHO-G model based on

the IPCC SRES A1B Scenario

Source: National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) in KMA

International Conference on Climate Change Science and Impacts

19-22 November 2008, International Convention Center, Jeju, Korea

Image: NIMR