Climate Sense

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Observing , Predicting and Projecting C limate C onditions
need to be set up together to analyse climate hazards
and related impacts. The use of a geographic infor-
mation system helps to integrate both databases in
an efficient manner, as well as allowing customized
criteria for climate watches. Climate monitoring has
been strengthened by using space-based observations,
which provide useful environmental information
needed to assess the intensity, evolution and extent of
climate related hazards.
Most NMHSs currently issue warnings (typically
for two days in advance) based on weather predic-
tions of the occurrence of severe weather conditions
including: tropical cyclones; heavy rain with risk of
flooding; severe thunderstorms with risk of tornadoes
or hail; gale-force winds; heat waves and cold spells;
snow; ice; severe coastal tides; storm surges; landslides;
avalanches; forest fires; fog and sandstorms. A good
example of this type of set-up is the European Meteo
Alarm system ). Additional infor-
mation on the severity/intensity of the risk, its expected
time period and possible impact, as well as some advice
on how best to behave under the circumstances are
usually also provided. The use of longer lead-time fore-
casts (seven to ten days) issued from medium-range
forecast centres is also extremely useful for issuing
pre-warnings.
Such systems also use long-range forecasting prod-
ucts (from one month to two years) that are provided
by Global Producing Centres and Regional Climate
For more than a decade setting up an efficient early warning system
for climate anomalies and related extremes has been a major
focus of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), with
the aim of improving climate risk management capabilities among
nations. Such climate warning systems – for example, climate watch
systems – are designed to provide advisories (climate watches) to
inform the users, particularly those involved in natural hazard
preparedness, mitigation and response on ongoing, pending and/
or expected climate anomalies and their negative impacts. As such,
NMHSs should be adequately equipped and prepared to continu-
ously monitor and assess the state of the climate, evaluate available
long range forecasts, and when possible, provide users with concise
and understandable early warning climate information on a weekly,
ten-day, monthly and seasonal timescale.
System components and requirements
The availability of quasi-real-time and historical climate obser-
vations is necessary for the efficient monitoring and forecasting
of extreme climate events. Monitoring climate extremes usually
requires high-quality and high-resolution data. Therefore a good
quality observation network able to capture the space and time
features of climate events is necessary. At national level such
networks should be manageable in an integrated way, incor-
porating a central, real time data collection system and robust
climate data management facilities. This infrastructure should
enable the quick access and retrieval of current and historical
data along with adequate applications to perform climate analysis
to the required accuracy. Climate databases and users databases
Sector
Health
Agriculture
Transport
Water resources
Energy
Climate extremes
Heat/cold wave
Flood, landslide, windstorm
Drought
Temperature and excess of rainfall
Flood, heavy rainfall, hailstorm
Drought
Flood, heavy precipitation
Heat wave
Drought
Heavy rainfall
Dry spell
Heat/cold wave
Precipitation deficiency
Impacts
Cardiovascular, respiratory and heat stroke mortality
Deaths and injuries, infectious diseases and mental disorders
Starvation, malnutrition and diarrhoea and respiratory diseases; strain
on health due to poorer drinking water quality and availability
Mosquito, tick-borne diseases; rodent-borne, water-borne and food-
borne diseases
Effects on early seeding, damage to crops and submergence, inefficiency
of applied fertilizers; food and shelter for livestock; diseases such as
cholera, worm infestation
Early establishment in high lands, low plant stand, damage to crops;
outbreak of diseases such as black quarter, anthrax in cattle
Flooding of roadways, rail lines, subterranean tunnels and runways, road
washout, damage to rail-bed support structures, damage to pipelines
Compromised pavement integrity, deformation of rail lines, thermal
expansion of bridge joints, heat buckling of runways
Increased susceptibility to wildfires
Decreased visibility at airports located in drought-prone areas
Increased river discharge, inundation, dam management
Lower water quality, reduction of water resources, effect on reservoir
management and fresh water distribution in urban areas
Increase of energy heating or cooling demand, reduced energy supply,
affects gas and fuel pipelines
Reduction of hydropower energy production
Example of sector applications