Climate Sense

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Early warning, early action

Maarten van Aalst, Associate Director and Lead Climate Specialist, Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre,

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

hen disasters strike, Red Cross or Red Crescent volun-

teers are often among the first to provide relief to the

victims. But in most cases, we can save more lives and

reduce more suffering if we can act before a disaster. We have known

for decades that it is much more effective to evacuate people before

a flood than to rescue them after the event. It is more effective to

support farmers in finding alternative livelihoods than to provide

food aidwhen the harvest has failed. The Red Coss and Red Crescent

is investing more into people-centred early warning systems, using

information at all timescales to address the rising risks of extreme

weather events in a changing climate.

Early warnings abound

Fortunately, thanks to remarkable advances in science and technol-

ogy, we have access to a wide range of early warnings. Global computer

models and satellite images, regional centres of expertise, national mete-

orological offices and other government agencies, local field reports and

community observations all allow us to better understand the present,

and to anticipate the likely future. At the shortest timescales, a warning

of an impending storm can help communities prepare and take immedi-

ate action – such as evacuation to reduce the loss of life. At intermediate

timescales, a seasonal forecast may give warnings that an upcoming storm

season could be particularly severe, a rainy season could bring unusual

floods, or that a continuing drought could result in food scarcity. At even

longer timescales, climate change projections and trends such as urbani-

zation and population growth present early warnings of increasing risks.

Early action

An early warning has no effect without early action. Numerous examples

illustrate how reliable information about expected threats was insufficient

to avert a disaster, including Cyclone Nargis, Hurricane Katrina, and the

food crisis in Niger. At the shortest timescales, such action could simply

be evacuation. On the longest timescales, it means working closely with

local communities to assess and address the root causes of the chang-

ing risks they face. Houses on stilts, planting trees against landslides,

dengue awareness and prevention campaigns, water catchment systems

and many other risk reduction measures can be taken. Early action also

includes updated contingency planning and volunteer mobilization. The

more we act upon the warnings on the longest timescales –by identifying

communities at risk, investing in disaster risk reduction and enhancing

preparedness – the more lives and livelihoods can be salvaged at the

shortest timeframes when a flood does arrive.

Early action also spans a range of geographical scales. While effec-

tive international humanitarian preparedness and response is essential,

especially for major disasters, many activities to prepare for disasters,

and particularly to reduce risk, need to be implemented at the most local

level – often by local communities themselves. Better links to global,

regional and national knowledge centres can only facilitate

more effective action at local level if we ensure the informa-

tion is received in time, understood and trusted by those at

risk, and interpreted to inform local action.

Early action in the 2008 West Africa flood season

In May 2008, the West and Central Africa zone office

of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red

Crescent Societies (International Federation) in Dakar,

Senegal, took advantage of new partnerships with climate

professionals on both sides of the Atlantic – including

the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for

Development and the International Research Institute

for Climate and Society (IRI) – to try to prevent history

repeating itself in West and Central Africa. Floods

across Africa in 2007 were the worst in several decades.

Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced in nearly

20 countries. Nearly 300 died as a direct consequence of

the flooding, which came in the wake of several relatively

heavy flood seasons since 2000. This appeared to fit a

pattern of increasing rainfall variability, possibly related to

global warming, and clearly a concern for the Red Cross in

the region. However, long-termmodel projections provide

little guidance in this region - even annual average rainfall

may go up or down. All we could do is be better prepared

for a wider range of risks, and in particular making use of

information at shorter timescales – not merely waiting for

more disasters to unfold.

By 2008, the zone office was regularly monitoring

seasonal climate forecasts. In late May 2008 forecasts

received from two trusted sources raised an alarm. One

was by the IRI, from a dedicated climate risk maproom,

part of the International Federation’s DisasterManagement

Information System. The other was presented at PRESAO,

the regional climate outlook forum, attended for the first

time by the International Federation’s disaster manage-

ment coordinator in Dakar, Youcef Ait-Chellouche. Both

showed a high probability of ‘wet’ and ‘very wet’ condi-

tions in the same countries that were flooded in 2007. The

International Federation released initial funding from its

Disaster Response Emergency Fund, which can finance

early action based on evidence of a probable imminent

disaster. Given the potential scale of the flooding, the

International Federation also launched, for the first time

ever, a wholly pre-emptive appeal for flood prepared-

ness assistance based on seasonal forecasts, worth nearly

USD750,000 and covering the entire at-risk region. This

isk

overnance

and

anagement