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a similar discharge in 2007, they advised fishermen not
to go out on the river. Across the region, the Red Cross
was able to respond better and faster. In 2007, it took
over a month to get supplies to where they were needed.
In 2008, most countries received supplies within days.
At the end of the flood season in September 2008, the
IRI issued its seasonal precipitation forecast for October,
November and December, predicting above-average rain-
fall for the dry season. The zone office held a community
meeting to consider the risks if the dry season was wetter
than usual. Farmers quickly raised concerns about crops,
mostly nuts and cereals that are typically dried outdoors
in these months. If there was rain during this period they
could easily rot, putting food security and livelihoods at
risk. In partnership with the World Food Programme and
the Food and Agriculture Organization, the zone office
identified the exact drying period. Staff then contacted
regional National Societies, asking them to inform farming
communities that rain was possible and they should be
prepared to cover or shelter their crops, keeping an eye
on short-term rainfall forecasts. This simple information
enabled many farmers to preserve their harvest.
Preparing for the certain and the uncertain
The West Africa example, along with several others, show
that combining information on various timescales pays
enabled the zone office to provide support to National Societies for
action before and during the floods, which indeed arrived as projected.
The International Federation positioned relief stocks in Dakar, Accra
and Yaoundé, ensuring supplies did not have to be flown in fromDubai
but were already in the region, allowing faster and cheaper distribu-
tion. Regional disaster response teams were trained for flood response,
and National Society disaster managers learned to interpret six-day
rainfall forecasts to monitor upcoming risks. Visas were requested and
medical insurance acquired in advance, so that teams could be mobi-
lized within 24 hours of an emergency.
In Togo, an especially vulnerable West African country, more people
were affected by the 2008 floods in more densely populated areas than
in 2007. Yet data tracked by the International Federation suggests only
16 deaths occurred in 2008 compared to 25 previously. This reduction
may not be directly attributable to Red Cross action, but Togo Red
Cross staff believe their 2008 response was faster and better because
they received early seasonal forecasts, and had learned lessons from the
previous year. They now had contingency plans, a larger number of
volunteers on call, and an effective communications system allowing
information to pass between national headquarters, focal points in the
regions and local communities.
In Ghana, Red Cross volunteers helped to prevent a disaster when
they learned that water from the Bagre Dam in the Volta River would
be spilled, warning fishermen not to go out on the river on the days of
the excess spillage – something they had been monitoring based on the
warning from the seasonal forecast and the disastrous consequences of
Multi-model probability forecast of extreme precipitation for June-August 2008, issued May 2008
Source: IRI