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Managing risk in a changing climate
Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for Climate and Society
W
e live in a time of rapidly escalating concern about
climate change. Although scientific evidence has been
steadily building over many years, only recently has
the consensus concerning observed impacts and future scenarios
reached a level to capture the world’s attention. Increasingly, the
question of the reality of climate change is being replaced with
the question of what to do about the problem. It is also increas-
ingly appreciated that the response will require concerted efforts
not only to control atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions, but
to adapt to and manage the effects of climate change as well.
Climate shocks in the form of droughts, floods, cyclones, and
related problems such as epidemics, food insecurity, infrastructure
loss and the like have been playing out year by year, throughout
recorded history, but with increasing severity as populations are
becoming increasingly vulnerable. A growing body of evidence
points to the direct effects of climate on economic and human
development, particularly in low-income countries. The ability
to cope better with the climate is thus a paramount issue of the
present, and a potentially even greater issue in the foreseeable
future. ‘Win-win’ approaches to better manage current climate
risks, and to build capability to cope with the climate of the future,
are especially needed.
Many of the world’s leading development institu-
tions – including the United Nations Development
Programme, the World Bank, regional development
banks, foundations, bilaterals and non-governmen-
tal organizations – recognize that efforts to meet
development goals, in particular the Millennium
Development Goals, are threatened by climate
risk. As a result, they have begun reviewing their
programmes from the perspective of climate-related
risk assessment and risk management. Similarly,
national governments and decision makers at the
local and regional levels are now asking how they
can better manage climate-related risk.
A great deal of relevant information is now
available to assist these efforts. Under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, and particularly through the work on the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
authoritative assessments of the current climate and
possible future climate scenarios are readily avail-
able. In addition, routine monitoring information
and seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts are
available in several centres. In practice, however, it
has proven difficult to cast this information in terms
that can inform decisions and policies in key socio-
economic sectors. As a result, little uptake has been
achieved and livelihoods and economies remain
vulnerable to climate risk.
The work needed to provide problem-specific
information and to advance innovations in the use
of such information is the science of climate risk
management practice. This work is especially chal-
lenging because it involves a complex interplay
between physical, natural, and social systems and
requires that practitioners engage with good science,
good policy, and good practice. At present there are
some organizations working to connect these dispa-
rate disciplines – but while their work has provided
examples of practical ways to manage climate risk,
the demand for useable knowledge and information
far outstrips what can be provided.
If the global community is to become serious
about managing climate risks, it must close the gap
between knowledge and practice. In addition to major
programmes in climate assessment, international
policy, and development assistance, the global commu-
nity must also provide a mechanism to advance climate
risk management practice.
R
isk
G
overnance
and
M
anagement
Farmers in Chile, part of South America’s Southern Cone region
Image: Curt Carnemark/World Bank