Climate Sense

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research and operational climate forecasting. A year later, in 2009,

APCC launched the Climate Information ToolKit (CLIK),

a web-

based solution that provides a user-friendly interface for climate

prediction computations. CLIK is designed to aid users in easily

retrieving and using climate prediction data and information avail-

able from APCC data servers. Climate forecasters, disaster managers

and researchers anywhere in the world can log on to this service to

generate customized climate predictions on seasonal to interannual

timescales for their regions of interest. The software is expected

to make a considerable contribution to the early warning and

management of climate-related disasters, particularly in developing

countries around the world.

Lessons learned and future directions

The practical importance of climate forecasts for the protection of

life and property, together with concerns over future environmental

degradation, has led to the creation of APCC. The most important

challenge facing APCC is to provide accurate and reliable climate

information for member economies in the Asia-Pacific region, and

ultimately to help build capacity in the member economies for

generating timely and accurate climate predictions. The first vision

can be achieved by coordinated activities, but the ultimate goal calls

for a formal and systematic institutional basis.

To address this challenge, APCC is exploring avenues to extend

forecast limits to beyond a season, and initiated experimental

6-month climate predictions. These products, if found to yield reli-

able forecasts, will pave the way for enhanced disaster preparation.

Another experimental product currently on trial is for global predic-

tion of extreme hydrological drought and flood.

Even though APCC has taken great strides in improving the quality

of global seasonal forecasts, challenges persist. For instance, it is

immediately evident once we consider the needs of regional applica-

tions that the current forecast products from global models are often

inadequate, as their spatial and temporal resolutions are too coarse.

To bridge this gap between model outputs and end user requirements,

APCC has developed statistical downscaling expertise; in the near

future, the Center will develop and implement a suite of user-friendly

online interactive statistical downscaling tools which will

leverage the end values of MME outputs.

Another challenge is related to the utility of current

technology in forecasting high impact extreme meteoro-

logical events that occur beyond the weather timescale,

but within the seasonal timescale. Examples of these

include the prediction of well known intraseasonal varia-

tions or that of unusually active tropical storm, hurricane

or typhoon seasons in certain years or decades. The

potential of using high resolution dynamical models and

empirical techniques to predict extreme climate events

from the intraseasonal to interannual timescales, such as

the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its associated clusters

of high impact weather, will also be a key focus for APCC

in the years to come.

The years of collective experience within the APCC

network expose nontrivial gaps in the translation of

climate information into products that benefit society.

Much of this is related to the lack of interdisciplinary

studies that link, for example, how climate information

can benefit activities planning in important sectors such as

agriculture, energy, water management and health. APCC

will expand its products by venturing into various indus-

trial sectors including agricultural and water management.

The spectre of a changeable and changing climate

leading to more intense storms, hurricanes and

typhoons, increased flooding, droughts, heat waves

and other extreme climate and weather events raises

concerns about the vulnerability of present and future

societies to climate-related catastrophes. It is not only

the poorer countries that are likely to suffer the most.

In an increasingly interconnected world, the most

developed are equally vulnerable. The climate network

fuelling APCC is a positive and fruitful example of

cooperative initiatives that both developed and develop-

ing economies can undertake in implementing effective

adaptation strategies against climate-associated risks.

Participants at the 2008 APCC workshop on ‘Regional climate predictions using statistical downscaling’

Image: APCC