Climate Sense

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isk

overnance

and

anagement

the increases in vulnerability of communities to natural

hazards. Climate change will add yet another stress to those

of environmental degradation and rapid unplanned urban

growth, further reducing communities’ abilities to cope with

even the existing levels of weather hazards.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) estimates that by 2100 the global average surface

air temperature will increase by 1.1 to 6.4ºC and the global

average sea level will rise between 18 and 59 centimetres.

It is very likely that heat waves and heavy precipitation

events will continue to become more frequent, and there

will be more precipitation at higher latitudes. It is likely that

tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become

more intense, and that precipitation will decrease in most

subtropical land areas.

It is impossible to be completely certain about the disaster-

related implications of these physical changes, for several

reasons. Firstly, there is considerable intrinsic uncertainty

in climate projections, especially for local scales of interest.

Secondly the occurrence of individual extreme events is very

random in character. Thirdly, the nature of societal exposure

and vulnerability to particular extreme conditions is both

diverse and rapidly changing. Nevertheless, decisions and

planning must go ahead, irrespective of these uncertainties.

IPCC provides extensive information on the impacts of

climate change and there is plenty of information on the

processes of historical disasters.

By extrapolating past expe-

rience to the conditions projected by IPCC – and in the

absence of measures to reduce disaster risks – the likely

consequences can be estimated in general terms as follows:

More heat waves

– will increase the number of deaths,

particularly among the elderly, the very young, or among

people who are chronically ill, socially isolated or otherwise

especially vulnerable.

Increased drought in some regions

– will likely lead to

land degradation, damage to crops or reduced yields, more

livestock deaths, and an increased risk of wildfire. Such

conditions will increase the risks for populations depend-

ent on subsistence agriculture, through food and water

shortage and higher incidence of malnutrition, water-borne

and food-borne diseases, and may lead to displacements of

populations.

Increased frequency of high precipitation in some regions

– will trigger floods and landslides, with potentially large

losses of life and assets. These events will disrupt agricul-

ture, settlements, commerce and transport and may further

increase pressures on urban and rural infrastructure.

Increases in the number and intensity of very strong cyclones

–will affect coastal regions, with potentially large additional

losses of lives and assets.

Sea-level rise, coupled with coastal storms

– will increase

the impacts of storm surge and river flooding and damage

livelihood systems and protective ecosystems. Low-lying

settlements may become unviable, which may result in

increased potential for movement of population and loss

of infrastructure.

Higher temperatures and melting glaciers

– may cause

glacial lake outbursts that could flood downstream

settlements.

The framework sets out five priorities for action:

• Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and local priority with

a strong institutional basis for implementation

• Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning

• Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety

and resilience at all levels

• Reduce the underlying risk factors (this covers the many environmen-

tal and societal factors that create or exacerbate the risks from natural

hazards)

• Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels.

The expression ‘disaster risk reduction’, like that of ‘adaptation’, repre-

sents an abstract strategic and policy goal but tells little of what needs to

be done in practical terms to address these priorities.

Fortunately, there

is vast knowledge on what to do and many solutions and examples of

good practice are available.

In developed countries particularly, there are well-established secto-

ral risk reduction and risk management efforts, the success of which is

reflected in much lower death rates and lower relative economic losses.

A number of developing countries have also made excellent progress in

implementing policies that have cut loss of life especially.

Globally, the issue of disaster risk reduction is coordinated through the

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)

and the biennial sessions of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk

Reduction. This platformcomprises a broad selection of stakeholders in a

forum, which provides a strongmechanism for guiding worldwide action

to reduce disaster risks and to reverse the growing losses from disasters.

At the second session in June 2009, political leaders highlighted that

reducing disaster risk is critical to managing the impacts of climate

change and to avoiding an erosion of social and economic welfare.

While

there has been a dramatic increase in political will in all regions to address

disaster risk, and significant progress has been achieved since the Hyogo

Framework for Action was launched in 2005, it was agreed that greater

urgency and a major upscaling of effort is required to address the factors

that are driving the current increases in disaster risk.

Climate change and disaster risk

Climate change will affect disaster risks in two ways: firstly through

the increase in weather and climate extremes, and secondly through

Education is critical to providing the knowledge and tools that communities need

to manage their risks from weather events, climate change and other hazards

Image: Asian Disaster Reduction Center