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Climate impacts on the society
and economy of Croatia
Ivan ˇ Caˇci´c and Krešo Pandži´c, Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Croatia;
Sandra Vlaši´c and Seth Landau, United Nations Development Programme
T
his review is based on the United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP) 2008 Human Development Report
for Croatia relating to the most prominent challenge of
our time – climate change and its impact on our society and
economy. It is a breakthrough report for Croatia and the first of
its kind following the new analysis released by the International
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In coming years more reports
from other nations are expected to highlight the vulnerability of
individual countries and the issues that the south and central
European region face because of climate change. Climate change
brings significant risks, but it may even present some opportuni-
ties for our future. We have a responsibility to act, to manage
that risk and to mitigate the damage in the most effective way.
It is a scientifically proven fact – recognized by a Nobel Prize in 2007
– that climate is significantly changing due to human activities. It is
obvious that the consequences of that change and reflected variability
are already being felt all over the world. Croatia is no exception. In this
report, we provide an assessment of impacts as well as quantifying the
damage to several sectors of the Croatian economy over
past years as a result of climate change and variability. The
analysed sectors – including agriculture, fisheries, health,
hydropower, tourism and the coastal zone – represent
25 per cent of the Croatian economy, employ almost half
the working population and represent total annual gross
domestic product (GDP) of EUR9 billion.
Both the government and citizens are concerned by,
and interested in, climate change. The government is
already pursuing several strategies to reduce green-
house gas (GHG) emissions, thus allowing the Human
Development Report to focus on identifying key gaps
and to provide specific recommendations on ‘climate-
proofing’ human and economic development strategies.
The ‘climate for change’ that currently exists in Croatia
will provide the motivation needed for the country
to continue to develop and to address the challenges
adequately.
Current and future climate
When examining Croatia’s vulnerability to climate
change we must have a basic understanding of the
current climatic conditions within the country, as well
as predictions for the future under various scenarios.
Over the last century, emissions of GHGs caused
by human activity have already had an impact on the
climate system. Three direct characteristics of the
climate, and changes to those characteristics, can have
an impact on human development:
• Temperatures, which appear to be increasing in
Croatia
• Precipitation, which appears to be decreasing –
especially during certain seasons
• Extreme weather events, such as wind storms,
heat waves and droughts, which are already having
significant impacts on human development.
In Croatia during the 20th Century, most regions saw
a fall in precipitation and an increase in temperature
in almost every season. It has not been possible to
distinguish how much of this is due to natural climate
fluctuations or to human influence without climate
models for Croatia that undoubtedly point to signifi-
cant future changes in climatic conditions especially if
emissions are not cut dramatically.
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Severe bora at Senj
Image: Damir Sencar, HINA