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T
he
I
mpacts
and
I
mplications
of
C
limate
C
hange
and
V
ariability
Second, farmers often face water shortages at certain critical times
during the growing season and, in general, the soil lacks moisture.
Croatia uses only a small fraction of its available water resources
(about 1 per cent). However, climate change may stress some of the
systems that depend upon fresh water. The Croatian energy sector
is potentially vulnerable if climate change results in reduced river
flows – which is likely given the predictions of climate models simu-
lating a drier country. During 2000-2007, 50 per cent of Croatian
electricity production came from hydropower. In draught seasons in
2003 and 2007, significant losses in production resulted in increased
costs for electricity production. A likely scenario for the future is a
direct loss of between EUR16-82 million annually, with multiplier
effects throughout the economy.
The impact on agriculture is expected to be significant because
of its vulnerability to climate conditions in general. Precipitation,
temperature, weather extremes and evaporation rates have separate
and joined impacts on agricultural production. Agriculture is impor-
tant to the economy due to its value, its impact on food security
and vulnerable populations, and the employment it generates. In
2001, 92 per cent of Croatia was classified as rural, with 48 per cent
of the population living in rural areas. Generally, rural households
are more vulnerable due to poorer access to basic infrastructure
and poorer housing conditions than those in urban areas. Existing
climate variability already has a significant impact on agriculture.
Extreme weather events have resulted in average losses of EUR176
million per year during 2000-2007. This represents 0.6 per cent of
national GDP, or 9.3 per cent of the national Gross Value Added
(GVA) generated by the agricultural, forestry and fisheries sector.
Looking at the future effect on maize alone, the lost revenue due to
climate change is about EUR6-16 million in 2050 and EUR31-43
million in 2100. This corresponds to 0.8-5.7 per cent of all revenue
from arable crop sales in 2005. Most of this damage is due to water
shortages during critical times, as well as flooding and hailstorms.
Particular years, such as 2003 and 2007, suffered huge economic
damage that it is difficult to recover from. While some Government-
supported insurance programmes and a new irrigation programme
exist, current vulnerability to climate variability remains – particu-
larly with regards to drought.
Croatia has a long history of fishing and mariculture
and a coastline well suited for developing a modern
industry in these areas. The fishery and mariculture
sector in Croatia accounts for a small portion of the
GVA – an average of 0.25 per cent or around EUR56
million in 2003 and 2004 – but it plays an important
role in the socioeconomic status of a large number of
people. Climate change and increasing temperatures
may result in important impacts in the near future that
will challenge this industry.
Though climate change is a global problem, it will not
affect all people equally. Just as global climate-related
impacts are distributed unequally and disproportion-
ately among the poor, impacts at the national level
mirror this trend. Vulnerability to climate change
depends greatly on the geographic, sectoral and social
context. Poor communities can be especially vulner-
able to climate change – especially those concentrated
in higher-risk areas. Poorer communities tend to have
more limited adaptive capacities and are more depend-
ent on climate-sensitive recourses. Similarly, the elderly
– who are disproportionately poor – are likely to face
more severe consequences related to health impacts in
addition to economic impacts.
Croatia is already seeing the impact of climate
change and will inevitably continue to do so. UNDP’s
2008 Human Development Report for Croatia showed
climate change is happening and that actions must be
taken to reduce its impacts and reduce the extent of that
change. These impacts are expected to lead to a myriad
of problems that affect human development. Negative
impacts may include damages from more frequent
natural disasters and sea-level rise, strains on food
production, harm to human health, and many others. If
not addressed, climate change in Croatia could restrict
people’s choices, slow down and undermine develop-
ment gains and have a long-term negative impact on
human development in general.
Soil drought conditions in northern Croatia
Image: www. images.google.hr
Drought 65%
Wind/Storm 1%
Rain 4%
Frost 8%
Hail 19%
Flood 3%
Share of extreme weather conditions in agriculture damage claims
Source: UNEP, 2008