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T
he
I
mpacts
and
I
mplications
of
C
limate
C
hange
and
V
ariability
constitute an opportunity elsewhere. Consequently,
there will be ‘winners and losers’ at the business, desti-
nation and national level.
Contribution of tourism to climate change
The tourism industry uses energy in several activities such
as transportation and accommodation. As in many other
economic sectors, most energy use in tourism is based
on fossil fuels. Climate change is caused by GHG emitted
into the atmosphere – primarily through the burning of
fossil fuels. As such, the tourism sector is not exempt from
contributing to the process of global warming.
Carbon dioxide (CO
2
) is the greenhouse gas that
contributes the most to climate change, accounting for
an estimated 60 per cent of the warming caused by GHG
emissions.
9
The reported volume of CO
2
emissions
attributed to tourism varies considerably depending on,
among other factors, the definition of what constitutes
‘tourism’. According to UNWTO’s, tourism refers to:
“The activities of persons travelling to and staying in
places outside their usual environment for not more
than one consecutive year for leisure, business and
other purposes not related to the exercise of an activity
remunerated from within the place visited.”
10
Given this definition, emissions from tourism, including
three main sub-sectors – transportation, accommoda-
tion and activities – are estimated to represent close to
5 per cent of global CO
2
emissions in 2005. From the
total CO
2
emissions contributed by tourism in that year,
costs and may foster environmental attitudes that lead tourists to change
their travel patterns (for example, shift transport mode or destination
choices). There has been substantial recent media coverage on this topic,
specifically as it relates to air travel. Long-haul destinations can be partic-
ularly affected and officials in Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand
and the Caribbean have expressed concern that mitigation policies could
adversely impact their national tourism economy.
6
Indirect societal change impacts
– Climate change is thought to
pose a risk to future economic growth and to the political stability
of some nations.
7
According to the Stern report on the economics of
climate change, although a global warming of only 1°C might benefit
worldwide gross domestic product (GDP), greater climate change
would eventually damage economic global growth. Furthermore,
unmitigated climate change could cause a reduction in consump-
tion per capita of 20 per cent later in the 21st century or early 22nd
century. Any such reduction of global GDP due to climate change
would reduce the discretionary wealth available to consumers for
tourism and have negative implications for anticipated future growth
in tourism. However, there has been no in-depth interpretation of
the Stern report
8
with regards to the tourism sector.
The integrated effects of climate change will have far-reaching
consequences for tourism businesses and destinations. Changes in
temperature and other important features of climate will manifest
themselves differently across the regions of the world, generating
both negative and positive impacts on the tourism sector. These
impacts will vary substantially by market segment and geographic
region. The implications of climate change for any tourism busi-
ness or destination will also partially depend on the impacts on its
competitors. A negative impact in one part of the tourism systemmay
Geographic distribution of major climate change impacts affecting tourism destinations
A summary assessment of the most at-risk tourism destinations for the mid to late 21st century. Due to the very limited information available on the potential
impacts of climate change in some tourism regions, this qualitative assessment must be considered with caution
Source: UNWTO, UNEP and WMO (2008)