Real Risk

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The following are notes and bibliographical references to the articles contained within
Real Risk, as provided by the individual authors. For further information on any article
or author, please contact the publisher.
Introduction
“Vision without action is but a daydream, but action without vision is a
nightmare” – a global framework for reducing risk of disasters
1. Title quote from a Japanese proverb.
2. Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels.
Bringing disaster risk into development thinking: how often do we need to be
shaken before we are stirred?
1. IEG. 2006. Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development. Washington, DC:
Independent Evaluation Group, World Bank.
2. IMF. 2003. Paul K. Freeman, Michael Keen, and Muthukumara Mani,
‘Being prepared: natural disasters are becoming more frequent, more
destructive, and deadlier, and poor countries are Being hit the hardest,’
Finance and Development; 40, No. 3:42-45, September 2003, Washington,
DC: IMF.
3. World Bank. (Dilley, Maxx; Robert S. Chen, Uwe Deichmann, Arthur L.
Lerner-Lam, and Margaret Arnold, with Jonathan Agwe, Piet Buys, Oddvar
Kjekstad, Bradfield Lyon, and Gregory Yetman). 2005. Natural disaster
hotspots: a global risk analysis. Washington, DC: World Bank.
4. As a general rule, it costs around ten per cent more to build in a disaster-
resistant manner.
5. The authors are Director and Lead Evaluation Officer at the Independent
Evaluation Group of the World Bank. This paper summarizes the recent IEG
evaluation Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development.
Subregional strategies for preventing and managing disaster-related food crisis
1. AU/NEPAD, 2004a. Africa Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction. Revised
Draft. Meeting of Experts. Johannesburg, South Africa. 31 May-1 June 2004.
2. Ibid.
3. ADRC, 2002. 20th Century Asian Natural Disasters Data Book. August 2002.
4.
5. FAO 2004
6. NDMC, 2004. National Drought Mitigation Center. University of Nebraska-
Lincoln, 2004. What is Drought? Understanding and Defining Drought.
7. Commission, 2004. Preparing for Drought in the 21st Century . Report of the
National Drought Policy Commission. May 2000.
8. NDMC, 2004. Op. cit.
9. Ibid.
10. FAO 2004. Op. cit.
11. AU/NEPAD 2004a. Op. cit.
12. Commission, 2000. Op. cit.
13. Ibid.
14. Ibid.
15. ILO, 2004. Economic Insecurity Fosters World ‘Full of Anxiety and Anger’
.
16. IFPRI, 2001. Can World Financial Markets bBe Tapped to Help Poor People Cope
with Natural Disasters?
17. Ibid.
18. NEPAD-WFP, 2000; Hess, Richter, and Stoppa, 2002; McCarthy, 2003.
19. Bryla, G. E. et al., 2003. The Use of Price and Weather Risk Management
Instruments,
20. Commission, 2000. Op. cit.;
21. AU/NEPAD, 2004b. NEPAD Study to Explore Further Options for Food
Security Reserve Systems in Africa. Study carried out by the New Partnership
for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) with the technical support from the
United Nations World Food Programme, Rome. June 2004.
22. Ibid.
23. AU/NEPAD, 2004a. Op. cit.
24. Ibid.
25. AUC, 2004. Statement by H.E. Madame Rosebud Kurwijila, Commissioner for
Rural Economy and Agriculture at the Pre-Conference for “Water for Food and
Ecosystems”. United Nations Conference Center. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 4-5
November, 2004.
26. This article is based on the UN/ECA policy paper, Subregional Strategies for
Preventing and Managing Disaster-related Food Crisis, December 2005.
Risk reduction and mitigation in the aftermath of Hurricane Ivan: a year and a
half after the OECS/ECLAC damage assessment
1. Grenada is comprised of seven parishes, which include the island of Carriacou and
Petit Martinique; together they have a population of 102,632 people (according to
the Government of Grenada Population and Housing Census 2001).
2. Grenada: Macro-Socio-Economic Assessment of the Damages Caused by
Hurricane Ivan. OECS. September 2004.
3. Direct damage refers to losses to assets and stocks at the time of the disaster.
Indirect damage is defined as losses in flows (income and production flows
following the occurrence of the disaster).
4. Of the six parishes on the island of Grenada, which were impacted by
hurricane Ivan, four: St. George, St. David, St. Andrew and St. John, were
most severely affected.
5. Hurricane Emily, a category 1 system, passed through Grenada on 15 July
2005. The damage was estimated to be 12 per cent of GDP.
6. Risk is defined as potential hazard or danger, exposure to mischance or peril.
As of 4 July 2006, donors had committed USD17 million to relief and
reconstruction operations. Resilience is understood as the capacity of a
system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by
resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of
functioning and structure.
7. ECLAC. Grenada: A Gender Impact Assessment of Hurricane Ivan Making the
Invisible Visible, LC/CAR/L.48. 29 June 2005.
8. ECLAC sub-regional headquarters for the Caribbean (Port of Spain, Trinidad
and Tobago). The opinions here expressed are the author’s own and may not
coincide with those of ECLAC. Comments are welcome and can be sent to
Further reading:
USAID (March 2006) Grenada Business and Agriculture Development Programme.
Final Report and Impact Assessment.
World Bank, Grenada: A Nation Rebuilding (31 October 2005).
Dynamic hazard mapping for food security: Examples from sub-Saharan Africa
1. Simply put, vulnerability is the product of two factors: exposure to risk, and
coping capacity. When a population has a high exposure to potential risk
(such as drought) and a low capacity to cope with such a shock, it is said to
be very vulnerable to a loss in livelihood and food security.
2. See
3. This is the main, unanimously agreed principle of the Kobe declaration
(World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Kobe, Japan, January 2005).
4. This region includes the low rainfall band between the Sahara desert and the
Sudanian ecological zones of West Africa. It is home to some of the world’s
poorest countries, such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger.
5. The SPI can be used to determine the rarity of a drought or an anomalously
wet event at a particular timescale for any location in the world that has a
precipitation record.
6. Henri Josserand is Chief of the Global Information and Early Warning Service
(GIEWS) at the FAO/Rome.
NATO’s growing humanitarian role
1. As Deputy Assistant Secretary General in NATO’s Operations Division,
Maurits Jochems is responsible for the alliance’s work in the field of civil-
emergency planning, among other areas. This article was first published in
NATO Review.
Natural catastrophes: are increasing intensity and costs a long-term trend?
1. Phase boundaries after Landsea et al. (1999) and Goldenberg et. al. (2001):
Notes and References