Real Risk

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] 17

N THE MORNING

of 26 December 2004, a massive

tsunami hit the coastal areas of Indonesia, India, Sri

Lanka and Thailand. Hundreds of thousands perished.

About ten months later, a huge earthquake hit Kashmir with

massive force and killed tens of thousands. This followed

massive earthquakes in Iran and Turkey, in an earthquake-

prone arc stretching across the Near East and the Himalayas.

Could these events have been predicted? Not precisely, but

just as with financial crisis, we know which countries are

vulnerable and could be hit. Could the areas affected have been

better prepared? Sadly, with the benefit of hindsight, probably

yes. The Independent Evaluation Group report,

Hazards of

Nature, Risks to Development

found that while the World Bank

has often provided critical support to countries in distress, the

challenge ahead lies in being less reactive and more proactive

with its assistance. Natural disasters are risk factors in devel-

opment rather than interruptions to it and need to be factored

into the design of projects and country programmes of at-risk

countries.

Disasters: growing cost, increasing frequency

The cost of natural disasters in terms of lives affected and

financial impact has grown sharply – and throws into tumult

the development plans of the regions and countries affected by

disasters. In constant dollars, disaster costs in the 1990s were

more than 15 times higher (USD652 billion in material losses)

than they were in the 1950s (USD38 billion at 1998 values).

The reported number of disasters has also increased, growing

from fewer than 100 in 1975 to more than 400 in 2005. In

the 1990s alone, disasters affected some 2 billion people –

almost 40 per cent of the world’s population – most of them

in developing countries.

These figures are rising largely due to increasing social and

economic vulnerability to natural events. Economic and popu-

lation pressures have forced people into harm’s way – onto

precarious hillsides, into poorly constructed houses, onto diffi-

cult to cultivate lands – making natural events more likely to

turn into disasters.

Not surprisingly, World Bank spending on natural disasters

has also risen. Since 1980, the Bank has financed about 550

disaster-related projects representing more than USD26 billion

in lending for disaster response and mitigation.

We know where they happen, yet are caught by surprise

We are not totally helpless in the face of nature. The potential

for disaster is foreseeable. For instance, it is clear that low-lying

coastal areas on the Bay of Bengal will experience more flood-

ing; and small island states in the Caribbean and countries

along the Gulf of Mexico will be repeatedly hit by hurricanes.

Considering that ten borrowers accounted for almost 40 per

cent of the bank’s disaster lending projects, it is necessary only

to look at which countries have borrowed most for disasters in

the past to know which will borrow the most in the future.

Similarly, countries have been ranked according to the risks

they face. One such ranking, elaborated in the World Bank

Hotspots Study, has identified 75 countries with high economic

risk from multiple hazards, with 30-97 per cent of GDP in areas

at risk. The same study identifies 96 countries at high mortal-

ity risk, with 10-98 per cent of the population in areas at risk

to two or more hazards.

A disaster in any of these countries

could wipe out development gains for decades and affect an

entire generation.

Given the concentration of funding and risks, it is surpris-

ing that the strategies of the World Bank and much of the

development community do not more seriously consider the

frequency of disasters, in order to give special attention to

planning ahead and reducing long-term vulnerability in those

countries at highest risk. In fact, of current assistance strate-

gies for countries that have received World Bank support in

natural disasters, 44 per cent did not mention natural disas-

ters. Even in countries that have had more than eight World

Bank funded disaster projects, one-third of the strategies did

Bringing disaster risk

into development thinking:

how often do we need to be shaken

before we are stirred?

Ajay Chhibber and Ronald Parker, World Bank

Permanent solutions take longer to implement and

require sufficient political will

In Tajikistan floods and landslides occur with regularity. After severe

flooding and landslides in 1998, the World Bank provided support to

repair roads and bridges. Quick reopening of transport links was indeed

important in the short term. However, the same damage will occur when it

floods again. Repairing hillsides and redirecting roads away from flood-

prone areas would have provided a more permanent fix. In many high-risk

areas of the world where the same disasters strike repeatedly, permanent

solutions, not quick fixes, are needed.