9 / 156
income countries has ranged between two and fifteen per cent of
gross domestic product.
However, it does not stop there. In an age of close trade links
and economic interdependence, the damage done in one country
is bound to have significant ramifications elsewhere. If nothing
is done to reduce vulnerability, everybody, including the richer
countries and those not immediately at risk from natural hazards,
will pay the price.
Why are human and economic losses growing?
A number of factors contribute to the increased levels of devas-
tation observed in recent disasters. Rising urban populations are
increasing vulnerability very rapidly. The world’s current popu-
lation of 6.5 billion could reach the 9 billion mark within the
next 50 years. The majority of people will live in urban areas.
Particularly in developing countries, poorer segments of the popu-
lation are pouring into cities in search of employment. They move
into ramshackle houses in spontaneous settlements without
building codes, often located in high-risk areas like hillsides and
riverbeds.
At the same time, intensified economic activity is leaving its
mark on the environment the world over. Deforestation, for
instance, is a major factor in magnifying the scale and impact of
landslides and storms, while wasteful water-use practices are
responsible for aggravating the effects of droughts.
Increasingly, there is also a discussion about the effect of
global warming on natural hazards. Research is showing that
the number and intensity of some extreme, weather-related
events such as floods, windstorms and droughts are related to
the warming of the atmosphere as well as the oceans. And this
trend could be reinforced by further human-induced climate
change.
What is to be done?
These challenges are not likely to go away, but may be expected
to become magnified. Reducing vulnerability and risk begins by
considering how and where people live and work, and to which
hazards they are exposed. It is important to do this even ‘when
the sun is still shining,’ i.e. when people are not worried about
potential hazards or imminent threats.
The good news is that, across the developing and developed
world, the knowledge, expertise and resources already exist to
protect communities against natural hazards. Even the poorest
countries should have the means to raise awareness, build
hazard-resistant houses, install early warning systems and
respond to crises.
As an example, there are lessons to be learned from Bangladesh.
There, the repeated loss of life through tropical cyclones in coastal
areas prompted national and local administrators as well as NGOs
and the scientific community to monitor and forecast weather.
This has produced cyclone forecasts that are relayed to commu-
nities in clear and intelligible warnings through local authorities
and networks of more than 5,000 community and Red Cross/Red
Crescent volunteers. As a result, death rates have dropped signif-
icantly. In Mexico, Romania, Cuba, Vietnam and elsewhere,
schools have been required by law to teach disaster-related
subjects, so as to instil risk awareness at an early age.
Disaster risk reduction must be based on solid institutional
and legal frameworks to be effective and to ensure that all
segments of society are involved. Governments must assume
primary responsibility for the welfare of their communities by
providing the legal and institutional framework for disaster risk
management. First and foremost, they need to define clear respon-
sibilities and ensure that the various agencies at national,
provincial and local levels understand their roles and coordinate
their efforts.
The second task of governments is to allocate sustained funding
to disaster risk reduction activities. The Government of India, for
instance, decided to channel 10 per cent of all development
spending into risk reduction measures. These funds have helped
to build dams, roads and disaster-resilient schools, as well as
having contributed to income generation and microfinance
programmes aimed at reducing vulnerability amongst the poorest
segments of society.
The third element is to establish effective cooperation. An
increasing number of countries are setting up national platforms
for disaster risk reduction to bring together all relevant actors,
generate wider public visibility, encourage expanded professional
engagement and establish concentrated official authority across
disciplines and sectors.
What else constitutes an effective disaster risk reduction
strategy?
All risk reduction starts with hazard and vulnerability assess-
ments and with the mapping of the risks faced by different
communities. This data is vital and allows for critical analysis
and informed decisions about where to invest, how to develop
settlements and how to reduce human suffering and physical
destruction in the future.
Once hazards have been identified, early warning systems
need to be put in place to enable individuals and communi-
ties to react swiftly and appropriately. The most effective
warning systems are ‘people-centred’ ones, meaning that
communities at risk are actively involved in their development
and implementation. In Guatemala, for example, communities
located along the Coyolate River organized committees, carried
out participatory risk assessment, established community-
based early warning systems to monitor the water levels in the
rivers upstream and downstream, and organized evacuation
plans and shelters. With these measures in place, the impact
of the devastating Hurricane Mitch in 1998 was minimized and
no lives were lost in these communities.
Awareness-raising and education also form crucial components
of effective early warning, which should begin in primary and
secondary education so as to build generational knowledge of
local hazards and risks. Incorporating risk-related topics in school
curricula can enable children to protect themselves and others
in times of crisis.
When the Indian Ocean tsunami struck, British schoolgirl
Tilly Smith urged people to flee the shores of Phuket Island in
Thailand, saving hundreds of lives as a result. Her geography
class in Britain had taught her to recognize the first signs of a
tsunami. Similarly, on the Indonesian island of Simileue, grand-
parents have traditionally conveyed their knowledge of
earthquakes and tsunamis to their grandchildren, with the result
that only seven people out of the more than 80,000 inhabitants
perished in the tsunami. Hence, training teachers in disaster
risk reduction, staging regular evacuation drills, and involving
NGOs, community organizations and the media in a variety of
public awareness activities, can go a long way in making
communities more alert – and therefore more resilient to
natural hazards.
[
]9