The Full Picture

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A fundamental requirement for this is the availability of

historical and real-time systematic and consistent obser-

vations

hydrometeorological

parameters,

complemented with other forecast products providing

information on expected patterns of hazards from the

next hour to longer timeframes. This must be comple-

mented with vulnerability and exposure information as

well as tools and methodologies for hazard analysis,

mapping and sectoral risk assessment and modelling.

Hazard events are characterized by magnitude, dura-

tion, location and timing. Calculating the probability of

hazard events in terms of these characteristics is key to

fully documenting the hazard component of disaster

impacts. These defining characteristics provide a basis

for extracting information on hazard frequency and

severity from observational datasets. The fundamental

requirement is the availability of, and access to, high

quality historical meteorological and hydrological data.

This requires:

• Ongoing, systematic and consistent observations of

hazard-relevant hydrometeorological parameters

• Quality assurance and proper archiving of data into

temporally and geographically referenced, consistently

catalogued observational datasets

• Ensuring that data can be located and retrieved by

users.

Risk characterization would require that hazard infor-

mation be complemented with socio-economic

information related to the impact of disasters. Surveys

and reports by UN and international development and

financial institutions indicate that in most countries, the

concept of risk identification needs to be mainstreamed

in the development planning framework at policy to

operational levels. In a recent capacity analysis survey

conducted by the WMO, nearly 90 per cent of the 139

participating countries indicated the need to strengthen

their observing networks; capacities for maintenance of

standard hazard databases and metadata; maintenance

of sectoral disaster loss data, and methodologies for risk

modelling to support development planning in different

economic sectors. Given the pervasive nature of hydrom-

eteorological hazards and increasing levels of

vulnerability, ability to manage these changes will require

continuing and renewed commitment to maintaining the

observing networks, basic data, and hazard forecasting

capacities needed for identifying and managing risks.

Early warning systems for disaster risk reduction

Risk reduction involves actions taken to reduce the

overall risks associated with disasters. Such actions

would include short-, medium- and long-term sectoral

planning, early warning systems and emergency

preparedness mechanisms.

The second priority for action in the HFA is to ‘identify,

assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warn-

ings.’ This stresses the importance of early warning systems

as a critical component of disaster risk reduction. On the

global scale, it is worth noting that while the number of

countries, through their NMHS, to enhance their capacity in this area.

WMO continues to work toward ensuring consistent data quality and

accessibility across national boundaries for the purpose of improv-

ing risk management capabilities at the regional and sub-regional

levels.

Through the WMO Global Observing System, operated by the

national meteorological services, data are collected from 17 satellites,

hundreds of ocean buoys, thousands of aircraft and ships and nearly

10,000 land-based stations. More than 50,000 weather reports and

several thousand charts and digital products are disseminated daily

through the WMO Global Telecommunication System, which inter-

connects all meteorological centres around the globe.

The WMO Global Data Processing and Forecasting System involves

three World Meteorological Centres (WMCs) and 40 Regional

Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs). They are all operated by

NMHS, ensuring cooperation at global, regional and national levels

to process data and routinely providing countries with analyses and

meteorological forecasts, supporting early warning capacities through

the national meteorological services. In addition, WMO supports 30

regional training centres, providing technical training for NMHS

management and operations.

WMO’s global network has proven highly effective for issuing trop-

ical cyclone (including hurricanes and typhoons) early warnings

over the past 20 years in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Ocean

regions. Through the WMO coordinated observing network, atmos-

pheric and oceanic data are collected via in situ and space-based

instruments and distributed to six Regional Specialized

Meteorological Centres dedicated to providing tropical cyclone analy-

sis, forecasts and alerts in support of NMHS operational warning

systems. These operational capacities are supplemented by five

regional committees, involving NMHS forecasters, which ensure

ongoing improvements in the tropical cyclone forecasting and

warning systems. This has enabled availability of tropical cyclone

warning capacities to all countries at risk.

Through the ten scientific and technical programmes of WMO,

similar capacities have been developed and are being strengthened

on an ongoing basis for monitoring and warning of droughts, floods,

extreme temperatures, severe storms, wildland fires, air pollution,

sand and dust storms, and transport of nuclear, chemical and biolog-

ical pollutants related to man-made disasters. These capacities need

to be further extended to all countries, particularly those with limited

resources. However, WMO recognizes that only through strength-

ened coordination, collaboration and strategic partnership can these

capacities be developed to improve safety of the communities and

sustain socio-economic development.

A framework for disaster risk management

Disaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be

framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction

and Risk Transfer. The HFA stresses that effective disaster risk

management should be supported by effective governance, legisla-

tion, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local

levels, supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing

mechanisms among different stakeholders.

Risk identification

Risk identification involves understanding and quantification of risk

through hazard, vulnerabilities and exposure patterns. It provides the

first essential step for developing sound risk management strategies.

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