Climate Exchange

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that simple, and there is a need for research efforts on

subjects which are as yet poorly known, some exam-

ples already pave the way for further work and lessons

can be learned from these. Clearly, the availability of

long series of observation, both for climate data and

impact data, is a determining factor. In previous centu-

ries, various organizations have aimed at developing the

economic use of the Senegal River waters, and for that

purpose made observations. Long records are therefore

available today, and of the utmost importance for setting

up a climate service that can tackle a high variability

and grasp some past occurrences of extreme events.

And it stands to reason that monitoring the terrestrial

system today is a key to understanding, predicting and

optimizing activities in the future.

Hydrologists from the French Research for

Development Institute and climatologists from Météo-

France have worked together to build a predictive

system based on seasonal forecasting. It was proven

that seasonal forecasting could capture the yearly

variability of precipitation, enabling flow and extreme

events – being generated by extremely dry or wet

years – to be reasonably well predicted. Meteorologists

alone would never have achieved success in efficiently

work on the Senegal River’s flow regimes. They needed

to join forces with hydrology scientists.

Similarly, without the user being at the core of the

decision-making process, and without the strategy for

the development of the Senegal River basin being struc-

tured as an international organization, having a perfect

knowledge of all the requirements for the various uses

of water in the area, knowing the ins and outs of the

dam management and all other hidden agendas, the

information would have been void. Science is difficult

enough: all stakeholders have to join forces to make

climate information alive and fruitful!

Presao) and they are one of the top priorities of the Commission

for Climatology, including dedicated COFs like the Malaria

Outlook Forums.

In the frame of the GFCS, a key issue is to ensure that the most

advanced science is efficiently transferred to the operations, so the

best climate science can be immediately used for decision-making

and action. The capacity building done during the pre-forum work-

shops are a perfect opportunity to prepare these evolutions on both

sides, including users. For example, the Presao Second Generation

introduced the use of Global Production Centers (GPC) information

to forecast the main characteristics of the rainy season and tailor prod-

ucts to regional and national users in a more sustainable and relevant

way, as the products can be prepared for each period they are needed.

In addition, some countries are sharing climate characteris-

tics across different World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

regions like the Mediterranean Basin. This led to the concept of

transregional COFs and to some challenging capacity building

exercises as the climate knowledge, national capabilities, stakes,

and consequently the impact of current climate variability can be

very differently perceived across wide areas like these.

Météo-France, as GPC, leader of the RA VI Regional Climate

Centre network node for long-range forecasting and also as NMHS,

has been deeply involved in such activities since the beginning of

the COFs in 1998. It is one of the driving forces of the Presao Second

Generation in West Africa and supports new COF initiatives such

as the one in South-East Europe or the COF planned for the South-

West Indian Ocean (September 2012).

Lessons learned

Seasonal forecasting recalls for the need for – and benefit of – long-

term observation and series.

The Manantali hydrological or vector-borne disease applications

show that valuable climate information can be delivered today,

taking advantage of the state-of-the-art products and knowledge

available in the WMO GFCS framework. While direct applica-

tion of seasonal forecasting into decision-making processes is not

Météo-France, CCl and Western African climatologists exchange views on the coming rainfall season during the PRESAO meeting at ACMAD, Niger in 2008