Climate Exchange

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Developing an early warning system to

mitigate temperature stress on rice production

Yoshiji Yokote, Director, Climate Prediction Division, Global Environment and Marine Department,

Japan Meteorological Agency

recent pilot project jointly conducted by the Japan

Meteorological Agency and the National Agriculture

and Food Research Organization’s Tohoku Agricultural

Research Center saw the development of climate information

services for the agricultural sector in the Tohoku region.

The accuracy of seasonal forecasts issued by the Japan

Meteorological Agency (JMA) has increased thanks to improved

prediction techniques and advances in understanding regarding

the predictability of climate-related phenomena. However, seasonal

forecasts have not been effectively deployed in some user sectors.

One reason for this is that JMA’s seasonal forecast is probabilistic

in three categories (below-normal, near-normal and above-normal)

on a regional scale, meaning that it is not necessarily easy to use

or comprehend. Against such a background, JMA sought ways to

develop easy-to-use information tailored to users’ requirements

in order to support their decision-making activities in various

sectors. As part of such efforts, JMA began issuing Early Warning

Information on Extreme Weather (EWIEW) in March 2008.

EWIEW indicates the possibility of very high or low temperatures

up to two weeks ahead, and contributes to the implementation

of farming measures against damage caused by extreme weather

phenomena such as very cold conditions.

The National Agriculture and Food Research Organization

(NARO) is Japan’s largest research organization addressing agri-

culture, food and rural communities. Its Tohoku Agricultural

Research Center (TARC) is one of the leading institutions in the

field of studies on the use of weather and climate information

for the agricultural sector and provides such data to end users

(farmers). NARO/TARC’s recent activities have included consid-

eration of how to supply improved information with a greater

level of tailoring to end users. In addition, there have been good

long-term relationships between NARO/TARC and local JMA

observatories in the Tohoku region (in the northern part of

Japan’s mainland).

In July 2009, JMA hosted an international event titled The Tokyo

Climate Conference: Better Climate Information for a Safe and

Sustainable Society. The aims of the conference were:

• To identify actions and methods for the development of an

effective framework involving users and providers in order to

create user-oriented products and promote their utilization with

a focus on the Asia-Pacific region

• To contribute to the World Climate Conference-3, which

initiated the establishment of the Global Framework for

Climate Services.

Building on the favourable long-term relationships

between NARO/TARC and local JMA observatories in

the Tohoku region, the conference provided an ideal

opportunity for the two organizations to discuss how

the use of climate information in the agricultural

sector could be enhanced, and this exchange led to the

idea of a pilot project that would benefit both JMA and

NARO/TARC in their service and research activities.

As a result, the two organizations initiated a pilot

project to promote the effective use of seasonal fore-

cast data in Japan. The aims of the initiative were to

develop climate information applicable to agriculture

in the Tohoku region, which tends to be greatly affected

by cold conditions, to provide customized climate

information to end users (farmers) via a website, and

to evaluate the information’s effectiveness using a ques-

tionnaire survey. Future goals include enhancing the

use of climate prediction information in various user

sectors through lessons learned from the pilot project.

Dialogue and development

In the first stage of the project, JMA and NARO/TARC

engaged in dialogue to determine related requirements

and to exchange knowledge and information. JMA

considered how to promote the better use of predic-

tions covering the period up to two weeks ahead in user

sectors, based on recent improvements in prediction

skill. NARO/TARC also sought to improve the custom-

ized information it provides to end users so that better

countermeasures could be taken to protect rice crops

against the adverse effects of extreme temperatures, espe-

cially in the occasional cold summer conditions affecting

its area of responsibility. As a result of this dialogue, the

two organizations decided to target climate information

towards the development of the pilot project for the

farming of rice crops in the Tohoku region in summer.

There were three key reasons for this choice:

• The Tohoku region is frequently affected in

summer by cold north-easterly winds (known as

Yamase winds), which have a great impact on

rice crops

• Controlling water temperatures in rice fields by

adjusting water levels is an effective countermeasure

to combat the adverse effects of extreme

temperatures on rice crops – for example, farmers

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