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isaster
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eduction
to the public, government institutions, local government
authorities and other stakeholders through various chan-
nels including the internet, television, radio, newspapers
and through agricultural extension officers.
Evaluation and lessons learned
TMA usually verifies its forecast on a daily, weekly,
monthly and seasonal basis. For example, in the
case of the Dar es Salaam floods of December 2011,
TMA verified that the weather system was well estab-
lished three days before the floods, and a warning
was disseminated to all relevant institutions, such as
disaster management units and the media. Though, in
general, people tend not to take weather forecasts seri-
ously, the forecast was considered to be useful, since
after a heavy downpour on the first day and the infor-
mation from TMA, most people left lowland areas.
This helped to reduce the number of deaths and loss of
properties to a large extent. Nonetheless, the socioeco-
nomic impacts of the floods were alarming and more
than 43 fatalities were reported. Many people were left
homeless and lost property when their houses were
destroyed, and there was serious destruction of the
infrastructure (houses, roads and bridges).
An effective multi-hazard early warning system is
fundamental to disaster risk reduction. Due to a linkage
between TMA and the Disaster Management Unit and
Civil Protection Authorities, local government authori-
ties and the communities at risk in Dar es Salaam,
people were evacuated from low-lying areas at a cost
of more than Tsh1 billion. Awareness of the climate
services provided and the good relationship between
TMA and other relevant institutions in the early
warning system has significantly increased. Warnings
were issued and disseminated through the media and
the TMA website. Despite increased access to informa-
tion through mobile phones by a large community, this
technology has not been effectively used to improve
Tanzania’s early warning system. The effective early
warning system needs be scaled up by increasing aware-
ness about information access and response to different
weather and climate-related disasters.
An effective multi-hazard early warning system could
reduce the risks accompanying events like the Dar es
Salaam floods, as well as being an instrument to help
reduce the impact of other severe weather events such
as floods, heavy rains, hailstorms and lightning strikes
on crops, livestock, fishing, tourism and recreation
activities. Besides timely dissemination of the warnings
by TMA, it was found that response to the warning
depends on available infrastructure and equipment, the
communities at risk and rescue authorities.
Challenges and resources
Coordination of the four components of the early
warning system (warning centre, operation unit, media
and society at risk) must be enhanced. Sensitization,
including drilling exercises for communities at risk,
should be developed for mitigation purposes. However,
The meteorological sector contributes to disaster management
preparations, prevention, rescue and mitigation of natural disasters
by providing timely weather forecasts, advisories and warnings. The
early warning system for hydrometeorological hazards, including
tsunamis, has four components:
• Warning centre
• Disaster management and civil protection authority
• Media
• Communities at risk.
As the warning centre, TMA needs to maintain strong links with
other three components. Early warning is the most critical part of
disaster management as it is an important tool for disaster prepared-
ness and mitigation.
Seasonal climate outlooks
Seasonal climate outlooks are developed by considering the current
and predicted state of global and regional climate systems such as
the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and Quasi-
biennial Oscillation conditions, taking into consideration outputs
from global and regional climate models.
In Tanzania, seasonal climate outlooks are developed in three
phases. First, TMA scientists spend two days developing a prelimi-
nary outlook for the country. The second phase involves regional
climate outlook forums based in the Southern African Development
Community and Intergovernmental Authority on Development
regional centres, where TMA scientists participate in developing a
consensus regional outlook. In the third phase, the regional seasonal
climate outlook is down-scaled to national level by TMA scientists,
taking into consideration the results from the preliminary forecast and
microclimatic features in various climatological zones. The consen-
sus seasonal climate outlook is developed and its likely impacts on
various socioeconomic sectors assessed. In this phase, stakeholders
from climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, water, energy,
health and the media are invited to participate in the discussion.
The involvement of various stakeholders in the final phase of the
development was introduced by TMA in 2006 with the objective of
enhancing their understanding of the process and language used in
packaging the information. A press conference involving members
of the media and various stakeholders follows the third phase. This
involves the Director General of TMA issuing a statement to the media
and the public about the seasonal climate outlook and its implication
for various socioeconomic sectors. The statement is then disseminated
Image: TMA
TMA Director General Dr Agnes Kijazi giving a statement during the press
conference for March-May 2011 seasonal rainfall outlook