Climate Exchange

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forward-looking, sustainable water management adjustment strate-

gies to floods, ecology and water quality.

The data and the documentation on the ICPR scenarios are now

accessible online in four languages (English, French, Dutch, and

German) via the ICPR website.

This information finds vivid and

growing acceptance. For example, the inland navigation sector as

organized in the Central Commission for the Navigation of the Rhine

took the same data as basis for an assessment for adaptation needs.

Example service: WAVOS daily low-flow forecast

Within the integrated modelling system of the institutes forming

the KLIWAS consortium, not only centennial projections but also

daily forecasts are offered. These forecasts are implemented as an

operational online service, named WAVOS.

Currently, the service covers lead times up to four days for

selected gauges along several major rivers in Central Europe

(Rhine, Elbe, Upper Danube, Oder). One purpose of the daily

forecasts is to support the transport and logistics sector along the

rivers when vessel operations may be restricted due to extreme

flow conditions. Other users also benefit from this service, for

example, the flood-warning centres of the German federal states.

The service is based on a similar model chain like the discharge

scenario service – starting from meteorological model outputs, that

are optimized to be applicable in hydrological and hydrodynamic

models. The forecasting system takes weather forecasts of the DWD

as input. The initialization is based on station data retrieved from

the DWD and the French Meteorological Service (Météo-France).

These data are assimilated into the hydrological and

hydrodynamic components which are run at the BfG.

At the end of the processing chain, stream-flow and

water-level information is offered at relevant gauges

on the waterways. The forecasts are updated daily.

They are accessible free of charge via the Internet and

Videotext. Up to 4,000 clicks per day on the website

indicate the high level of acceptance of the service.

Lessons learned

The processing framework and the scientific network

of KLIWAS give information on climate change and

climate impacts that is quantitative, tailored to relevant

environmental and economic sectors, including uncer-

tainty guidance that has proven to be comprehensible

for stakeholders and is widely accepted in science and

administration due to early coordination with scientific

institutions working in the same area and field. This

information, however, is dependent on the current

capability of complex model chains to resemble real

world phenomena, and on the availability and quality

of observed data of all components of the water balance.

KLIWAS continues to work at the improvement

of data and models and the dissemination of results.

Currently, integration of many data and models is

regarded as best choice to obtain relevant information

on climate change and climate impacts.

Scenario corridors for an exemplary indicator (low flow during summer) characterizing hydrological change in the Middle Rhine River

Source: BfG