Elements for Life

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] 186

HERE IS A

growing understanding that hydrometeoro-

logical data, and weather forecasts in particular, bring

economic and social benefits to any country. The use of

hydrometeorological information in decision-making makes it

possible to minimize economic damages and loss of human

lives, as well as to gain additional economic benefits from the

forecasts of favourable weather conditions. However, existing

methods for assessing the economic benefits of hydrometeoro-

logical information and services require reliable econometric

and specialized data, considerable resources and expertise. All

or many of these ingredients are missing in the developing

countries, making it difficult for national hydrometeorological

services (NMHS) to demonstrate the economic efficiency of

their services and justify the need for adequate public support.

The World Bank was first faced with the need to develop a

method for an express assessment of the economic efficiency of

NMHS in 2003 while preparing the National Hydrometeorological

Modernization Project in Russia. The results of the study, carried

out jointly with Roshydromet, were well received by the Russian

Government and World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

This positive experience has encouraged the bank to launch

further studies in cooperation with NMHS.

Over the past 15 years, the NMHS of the transition

economies in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region

suffered greatly from the massive underfunding. This resulted

in increased economic losses from hydrometeorological

hazards and unfavourable weather conditions, the frequency

and scale of which increased in most ECA countries.

Modernization of NMHS and improvement of hydrometeoro-

logical service (HMS) delivery is one of the key factors in

minimizing economic losses from these events and increas-

ing pubic safety. Before allocating resources for such

modernizations, the national governments demand that

NMHS prove the economic benefits of such a decision.

For most NMHS, this poses a great challenge due to the absence

of a generally accepted methodology for assessing the effective-

ness of HMS delivery or modernization programmes; lack of basic

econometric information needed to assess losses and benefits,

and the shortage of expertise in NMHS and weather dependent

sectors capable of making this assessment. The process of collec-

tion and evaluation of the information is time-consuming and

requires substantial funding which is often unavailable.

The World Bank, jointly with a number of NMHS in Europe

and Asia (among them Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus,

Customizing methods for assessing economic

benefits of hydrometeorological services

and modernization programmes:

benchmarking and sector-specific assessment

V. Tsirkunov, S. Ulatov, M. Smetanina, A. Korshunov

In the last five years, 15 cases of waterspouts have occurred 3-5 km from the coast, on two occasions causing the loss of human lives

Photo: Mr P Lurie