Elements for Life

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conducive to transdisciplinary research that includes experts

from meteorology, hydrology, statistics, decision science,

economics, psychology, sociology, anthropology, geography

and other communities. Such research would benefit from the

greater engagement of users. Participatory research methods

have received considerable attention in the climate change

adaptation community

and are no less relevant for weather

information over shorter timescales.

Relative to the academic and professional communities,

NMHOs will have an equal if not greater role to play in guiding

the next generation of studies – one that goes beyond the

provision of financial support necessary to advance theory,

methods and techniques. A significant but latent potential of

this research lies in its ability to shape the future and planning

context of NMHOs. Understanding the value of providing

hydrometeorological and climatological information could be

a fundamental input to measuring and improving services or

making critical decisions with respect to the application of new

technologies and changes to existing monitoring networks,

observation strategies, communications, computer infrastruc-

ture, human resource management and priorities for research

and development.

Instead of only using ad hoc valuation studies to justify

past investments, NMHOs could incorporate a more system-

atic, strategic and long-term approach to designing,

conducting and applying societal and economic valuation

research. This is a substantive shift that will involve devel-

oping an internal capacity that is closely integrated with the

academic and professional research communities. Advances

being made in Canada,

the United States, and elsewhere

through WMO programmes such as THORPEX,

are encour-

aging. Hopefully, in hindsight ten years from now, we will be

able to admire and measure our tremendous foresight in terms

of saved lives and user benefits – however, much remains to

be done.

For all of the past improvements in weather forecasting,

achieved through the development of numerical modelling and

investments in global observations, telecommunications,

science, and forecaster training,

one is left wondering whether

a concomitant degree of value has been imprinted on society.

This may be because, until recently, the societal and economic

value and use of weather information has been under-studied,

rarely measured, and often assumed to exist by those purport-

edly funding or conducting societal problem-oriented

atmospheric research.

A small but growing body of literature

has emerged over the past 40 years to address this significant

need by documenting and estimating the use and value of

weather information.

Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

, Katz and

Murphy provide one of the most critical and comprehensive

collections of referenced work and critique a wide spectrum

of methods available to determine economic value (e.g. contin-

gent valuation, market-based cost-loss functions, cost-benefit

analysis, etc.).

Elsewhere, recent examples of sector-specific

studies on aspects of agriculture,

energy,

health,

forestry/fire

management,

transportation,

and water resources manage-

ment

are complemented with broader evaluations of multiple

sectors and public or households’ willingness to pay for

weather services.

Such studies most often examine the value

of information that is currently received or that could be

obtained with some specified level of improvement in quality

(i.e. precision, accuracy, delivery frequency or medium). Other

researchers have examined a particular component of the moni-

toring and forecast system, such as the impact of an expanded

network of Doppler radar infrastructure in Canada,

Weatheradio.

The future of weather-related economic valuation research will

no doubt continue to be influenced by advances in general

economic theory and applications by academics and profession-

als. The most critical necessity is an improved treatment of

assumptions concerning the decisions and behaviour of potential

users of weather information. In order to move beyond the flawed

static linear model of decision-making which assumes that more

information with greater precision and accuracy automatically

leads to better decisions and desired outcomes (reduced risk or

enhanced benefits), greater consideration of the user’s problem

and decision-making context will be required, including:

• Outcomes or consequences of concern to the user (e.g.

safety of citizens, units of production, profitability) and

associated measures (e.g. casualty rates, crop yields, etc.)

• Important relationships between weather, climate and

outcomes (i.e. source of key variables, transfer functions

or ‘events’)

• Responses or alternatives available for the user to manage

risks or take advantage of opportunities (including char-

acteristics of those responses such as tactical/operational

or strategic; frequency, duration, flexibility)

• Role of weather or climate information in current or

potential responses (i.e. how is it used; required levels of

precision, accuracy, frequency, etc.)

• User values, beliefs, and worldviews

• Organizational, socio-cultural, financial, technical, legal,

and political factors in user environment that may

constrain or facilitate adoption of response options.

This type of understanding is not neatly contained within one

academic silo

– a key challenge is to foster an environment

A Falling Weight Deflectometer is used to assess the strength of a road.

Weather information is important for calibrating such instruments and

in predicting seasonal weaknesses in pavements

Photo: S. Tighe