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Influenza pandemic:
overcoming global issues
David Nabarro, UN System Influenza Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza (UNSIC),
and Iain Bald, UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
T
here is now worldwide recognition of the need to prepare
for an influenza pandemic. This is a significant achieve-
ment considering that only five years ago the world was
largely unaware of and unprepared for the threat.
A high mortality influenza pandemic is as serious a threat for human
security as it was in 2005 when the subject first received high-level
attention from public health ministers and the media. Because of the
interdependency of global systems and the speed with which people,
goods and information can move around the planet, we can expect
that the consequences of a pandemic today might be worse than ever
before. As of 2009, more than half of humanity lives in urban
settings, often characterized by high population density, widespread
reliance on public means of transport, and dependence on ‘just-in-
time’ delivery of products and services. In today’s world, a pandemic
may well show us that our interconnected society’s
degree of complexity and sophistication is also a signif-
icant vulnerability.
While an influenza pandemic will of course initially
affect the health sector, there will be far-reaching conse-
quences for all sectors due to the impact of absenteeism
on labour, critical networks and international trade. The
World Bank estimates that in addition to causing millions
of deaths, the next influenza pandemic could well be a
global catastrophe with an overall cost to the world
economy of up to US$2 trillion.
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This impact can be
reduced if people and their governments are properly
prepared. The only option is for all countries to remain
vigilant so that they can identify early signs of a possible
pandemic, and work together so that all communities
Participants at the UN Country Team pandemic simulation held in Cairo, Egypt on 10-11 February 2009
Image: UNSIC