The Full Picture

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The socio-economic and environmental

benefits of a revolution in weather,

climate and Earth system analysis and prediction

Melvyn Shapiro, Jagadish Shukla, Brian Hoskins, John Church, Kevin Trenberth, Michel Beland,

Guy Brasseur, Mike Wallace, Gordon McBean, Jim Caughey, David Rogers, Gilbert Brunet,

Leonard Barrie, Ann Hendersen-Sellers, David Burridge, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Martin Miller,

Phillippe Bougeault, Rick Anthes, Zoltan Toth and Tim Palmer

cientists from the World Weather Research Programme

(WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP),

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP)

and the natural-hazards and socio-economic communities

have identified an urgent necessity for establishing a weather,

climate and Earth-system prediction project. This will increase

the capacity of disaster-risk reduction managers and environ-

mental policy makers to make sound decisions, in order to

minimize and adapt to the societal, economic and environ-

mental vulnerabilities arising from high-impact weather and

climate.

Rationale

The socio-economic, environmental and health impacts

of recent extreme weather and climate events, such as

the destructive flooding rains over India, China,

England, and the United States and the simultaneous

south-eastern Europe severe heat wave and drought

during the summer of 2007; the devastation of New

Orleans by Hurricane Katrina in 2005; the deadly

European heat wave of August 2003, and the persistent

multi-decadal African drought that ravaged the semi-

arid regions of the Sahel, demonstrate the vulnerability

of modern humanity, economies, and the environment

to high-impact weather and climate. Effective mitiga-

tion of, and adaptation to, such events requires accurate

prediction of the likelihood of changing weather and

climate at global, regional and local scales, combined

with enhancing the capacity of disaster-risk reduction

managers and environmental policy makers to utilize

this information to make sound decisions that minimize

the societal vulnerability, economic and environmental

losses and that maximize economic opportunities arising

from high-impact weather, climate variability and

climate change.

We stand at the threshold of providing and respond-

ing to major advances in observations, analysis and

prediction of high-impact weather and climate events,

and the complex interaction between the physical-

biological-chemical Earth system

and global societies.

This opportunity arises from the notable progress in our

ability to monitor and predict short-term weather

hazards and climate variability and change, and the

utilization of this information by disaster-risk-reduction

managers and environmental policy makers. For

example, short-term regional forecasts (hours to three-

day periods), prepared on spatial scales of a few

kilometres, are currently capable of predicting the occur-

rence of flooding rainstorms, air-quality emergencies,

coastal storm surges, severe wind events, hurricane track

and land fall, with reasonable skill. Global weather

Impacts of extreme weather and climate events

Clockwise from top left: Brush fire in Macedonia during the south-eastern

European summer heat wave of 2007; the town of Upton-upon-Severn in

Worcestershire, England, surrounded by water during the devastating flooding

of July 2007; an Ethiopian goat herder leads his livestock through the dust in

the desert where severe drought in East Africa has forced overgrazing, which

destabilizes the soil; refugees from Hurricane Katrina wait for evacuation

GEOSS C

OMPONENTS

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REDICTION

YSTEMS