The Full Picture

[

] 138

an integral component in the analysis of the observations and so

provide a sensor-integrated synergy for the monitoring and forecast

verification of weather, climate, and biochemical properties of the

Earth system. User-friendly high-speed and high-bandwidth integrated

data distribution systems are needed to allow access to most infor-

mation in near real time for use by environmental prediction centres

and major research centres.

Underpinning research

– This will improve the performance and

application of models, providing a basis for predictions of known

confidence through improved knowledge of weather, climate and

Earth system processes, and their fluctuations and change. For

example, one of the great research challenges is advancing the capa-

bility of weather and climate models to initiate and maintain

organized tropical precipitating convective systems. Progress on this

problem is a critical element in advancing forecast skill on timescales

of days in the tropics and globally at one week and beyond. This

research will also include the analysis of observations collected

routinely and in special multidisciplinary field campaigns; develop-

ment of advanced data-assimilation methods; process experiments

and full-system simulations, predictions and hindcasts driven by

observed climate-system forcings, and studies to assess and advance

the socio-economic use and value of the products derived from

advanced observation, analysis and prediction systems for weather,

climate and Earth systems.

Advanced high-performance computers

– to enable the implemen-

tation of next-generation weather, climate, and Earth system

monitoring, assessment, data assimilation and prediction systems;

ensemble-prediction systems that include many possible projections

for the future, thereby allowing probabilities of events to be deduced,

performed with high resolution for weather, climate variability and

Earth system prediction, and long-term (multi-decadal) integrations

for climate models with a high degree of Earth system complexity

for climate variability prediction and climate change projections. It

is envisioned that these three elements will require access to dedi-

cated supercomputing facilities with sustained speeds of at least

10,000 times that of the most advanced computers of today, each

supported by a critical mass of scientific and technical effort. Each

facility could be supported by a cluster of countries with a common

interest in high-resolution prediction of weather, climate variations

and change. Advanced data processing and visualization methods

are required to fully realize the research and operational benefits of

high-resolution analyses and predictions that will be generated by

high-performance computing.

International coordination

– An internationally-coordinated

weather, climate, Earth system and socio-economic data and fore-

cast information system and archive will provide universal access to

observational, experimental and operational global databases,

commensurate with the highest resolution achievable given near-

term observational and computational constraints. It will also

facilitate advanced analysis and visualization representations of

observed and predicted weather, climate, Earth system events and

their impacts.

Information

– The production of information for policy makers

and stakeholders is crucial in assisting critical decision-making

processes regarding adaptation to and mitigation of weather and

climate events, and sustainable development by exploiting advances

in the following: forecasts of short-term weather hazards; observa-

tions and analyses of changes that have occurred; predictions of

climate variability and change at the regional and local scale and of

their inherent uncertainties, including predictions of

the climatology of extreme events (e.g. tropical

cyclones, winter storms, regional floods, droughts and

dangerous air quality); consequence assessment tools,

which can utilize environmental, economic and social

information to predict societal and environmental

outcomes.

Required investments

Delivering the benefits from this ambitious endeavour

will require building upon the Group on Earth

Observations (GEO) as an international organizational

framework that will coordinate the proposed Weather,

Climate and Earth-system Project across the weather,

climate, Earth system, natural hazards and socio-

economic disciplines, including the infrastructure

required to support the project elements described

above. The effort will also require the following:

• Stemming the current decline in surface and upper-air

global observing networks and the development and

implementation of a new generation of in-situ and

space-based observing systems to meet the ever-

increasing observational demands of prediction early

warning systems today and in future generations.

• High-performance computing facilities with sustained

speeds of more than 10,000 times the most advanced

computers of today (achievable within 10-20 years),

including advanced data processing, information

distribution and visualization systems. Each facility

needs to be staffed with a critical mass of scientists

and technicians, and linked to a global network of

research, forecast and early warning centres.

• Education, science and technology transfer projects to

enhance awareness and utilization of weather, climate,

environmental and socio-economic information.

• Infrastructure to transition project achievements into

operational products and services.

The way ahead

The proposed weather, climate and Earth system predic-

tion project will be comparable in scale to the Apollo

Moon Project, Genome Project, International Space

Station and Hubble Telescope, with socio-economic and

an environmental benefits-to-cost ratio that is much

higher. It will provide the capacity to: realize the full

benefits of GEOSS, and to accelerate major advances in

weather and climate prediction and their socio-

economic and environmental applications. It will

require unprecedented international collaboration and

good will, but the global scope of the problem makes

this inescapable, as no single nation possesses the scien-

tific capacity and infrastructure to meet the challenges

set forth here. As nations, we have collaborated in the

advancement of weather forecasting, climate prediction

and global observing systems. As the Group on Earth

Observations, we must now extend this collaboration to

embrace the Earth system and the socioeconomic and

environmental applications of our science. It is a task

that must be undertaken.

GEOSS C

OMPONENTS

– P

REDICTION

YSTEMS