14 / 218
[
] 14
R
ECENT DEVELOPMENTS INCLUDING
those aimed at the
reduction and the mitigation of natural disasters and adap-
tation to climate change have resulted in growing interest
in the cost and benefits of meteorological services. National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) are required
to reduce costs, improve service levels, contribute towards national
priorities, increase accountability and sometimes supplement
public funding through cost-recovery and commercial activities.
As a result, economic valuation is becoming an integral part
of the management of weather services. The valuation serves to
demonstrate, often in monetary terms, the socio-economic value
of meteorological information. Also, valuation enables assess-
ment of overall performance of service delivery, changes in
decision making and behaviour, client satisfaction, awareness of
meteorological issues and of effectiveness in delivery of public
good and economic benefits.
Global challenges – poverty eradication and
environmental sustainability
The eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are key in
determining the cornerstone of international policy, channelling
of development funds and prioritization of international agenda
up to the year 2015. The cost of implementing these and the asso-
ciated socio-economic benefits has not been quantified, but is
largely perceived as essential for human welfare. Those of most
direct relevance to WMO are eradication of extreme poverty and
hunger, developing a global partnership for development,
combating malaria and other diseases, and ensuring environ-
mental sustainability.
The challenges are interdependent and transnational, and their
solution requires interdisciplinary and collaborative action among
governments, international organizations, scientists, the media,
the private sector, academic institutions and NGOs. The resources
required are considerable, and priorities often vary significantly.
Nevertheless, the challenges serve as a framework for action and
for assessing implementation costs and benefits.
An enviable track record
The socio-economic value of WMO’s contributions to humanity
has been considerable since its establishment in 1950. The atmos-
phere is continuously monitored, with data and products
exchanged freely and in an unrestricted manner. Improved
weather forecasts and early warnings with longer lead time are
available to all nations. Today a five-day weather forecast is as
reliable as a two-day forecast was 20 years ago. Seasonal forecasts
based on El Niño and climate projections are regularly available.
The first WMO statements on ozone (1975) and on climate
change (1976) led to the formulation of related conventions on
these subjects.
Economic benefits
In the USA it is estimated that 15 per cent of gross domestic
product (GDP) is affected by weather. Experts’ assessments indi-
cate that the average annual value of economic losses from
hydrometeorological causes in Russia is 60 billion roubles
(approximately USD2.2 billion). In Kenya, up to 60 per cent of
all economic activities are weather and climate sensitive and
investment in meteorological and hydrological services is known
to save lives and yield returns of 7:1. Overall, the benefits to
investment ratios in meteorology approximate between 5:1 and
10:1, and can even be much higher.
Agriculture
Specialized agrometeorological services, including seasonal fore-
casts, contribute to combating droughts and desertification, and
ensuring effective irrigation and natural disaster preparedness.
Developing countries, where agriculture accounts for over 50
per cent of GDP, often pool resources to establish regional centres
such as the AGRHYMET Centre in the Sahel region of West Africa
and drought monitoring centres in Eastern and Southern Africa.
Water resources management
WMO’s efforts on water are vital for a wider range of sustainable
activities including agriculture, hydropower, health, preventing
and mitigating water-related disasters, and ensuring effective envi-
ronmental management.
For cost-effectiveness, a number of nations collaborate within
internationally shared basin organisations. WMO supports these
organisations by providing expertise in various areas including
hydrological forecasting and integrated flood management.
It is estimated that by 2020, 20 per cent of the world’s energy
will originate from hydropower. In the USA, hydrological fore-
casting is estimated to yield benefits to costs of 12:1. Hydrological
forecasting results in reduced flood losses of USD240 million and
economic benefits of USD525 per annum.
Health
The MDGs call for halting, and beginning to reverse, incidences
of major diseases by 2015. Occurrences of malaria, dengue fever,
the common cold, respiratory problems from atmospheric pollu-
Development challenges –
working with the elements
Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization
Benefits to agriculture
• Use of agrometeorological information led to an increase of up to
30 per cent in crop yields in Mali
• Meteorological information is used in forecasting the hatching of locusts
and their subsequent movement in Northern Africa
• Benefits of El Niño forecasts (altering variety of crops) amount to
USD10 million annually in Mexico
• In Canada, weather forecasts result in benefits of CAD6-36 per
acre per year of alfalfa dry hay production.