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tants, heat wave and cold spells, and diseases like SARS require
increased vigilance on weather conditions.
Energy
Energy sources such as solar, wind and biomass offer a renew-
able, clean, decentralized and environment-friendly option. These
alternative energy systems, however, represent a challenging tech-
nological and social process, but socio-economic benefits can be
estimated for a wide range of applications.
Climate data are used in mapping the potential for such ener-
gies and in computer simulation programmes in the design,
operation and distribution of both traditional, and new and
renewable energy. This includes the design of biomass energy
plants and cooling towers, the operation of landfills and model-
ling for environmental impact studies.
Weather forecasts are useful in assessing power requirements,
especially in times of extreme weather conditions, and in deci-
sion-making relating to the daily performance of energy systems.
Transportation, tourism and construction
Air, sea, rail and road transport systems that are essential to trade,
leisure, socio-economic well-being and development, require
timely and accurate weather information for safety and efficiency.
Marine activities benefit from forecasts of weather, wave and
weather-related hazards in areas such as ocean routing, offshore
marine resource development, coastal engineering, towing oper-
ations and pollution clean-up.
Meteorological support to road transportation extends to
providing current and forecast information. For example, the
forecast of snowfall enables authorities to plan road clearing and
salting with considerable benefits to society.
Tourism is of growing importance for the economy of many
countries, especially those of small island states. Climate change
and sea-level rise, severe weather, damage to infrastructure and
erosion of beaches would make the islands and coastal zones less
attractive to tourists.
The construction industry is very sensitive to weather and
climate conditions for the design of buildings, their construction
and maintenance. In the United Kingdom, the average annual
loss associated with weather-related damage is estimated at
USD1.6 billion. Damage to residential and commercial structures
is usually the largest portion of this figure.
Natural and human-induced disasters
Over the last 25 years, nearly two million people have lost their
lives, with economic losses of over USD1 trillion caused by over
7,000 natural disasters related to weather, climate and water. The
number of disasters increased fourfold, with economic losses
increasing fivefold, but with loss of life decreasing threefold. This
achievement is due to several factors, including the implemen-
tation of effective end-to-end early warning systems. WMO is
involved in all aspects of disaster mitigation from preparedness
to relief, and ensures collaboration among nations within cyclone
basins, and with relief agencies.
The insurance industry regularly assesses the cost benefit of
disaster mitigation. It reckoned that for every dollar spent on
prevention and preparedness, approximately USD100-1,000 is
needed for an equivalent effort after a disaster has taken place.
Environment
WMO extensively supports environmental activities. It coordi-
nates the measurement of many physical parameters related to the
environment. Assessment of socio-economic value of such activ-
ities should take into account the short- and long-term benefits
that all nations derive from such activities. Climate change and
ozone related activities exemplify some of the issues involved.
Climate change
Climate change is a major environmental issue. Facts including
the continued increase of greenhouse gases, the rise in global
average surface temperature during the last 100 years by 0.74
degrees Celsius, the global average sea-level rise between 0.1 and
0.2 metres, changes observed in weather phenomena and ecosys-
tems, and the melting of glaciers are a source of serious concern.
Based on model projections, the 2007 WMO/UNEP
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientific
assessment report states “Most of the observed increase in glob-
ally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse
gas concentrations” For the next two decades a warming of about
0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of emission scenarios.
The best estimate for the low scenario is 1.8°C (likely range is
1.1°C to 2.9°C), and the best estimate for the high scenario is
4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). The upper ranges of sea
level rise for various scenarios would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m.
The associated impacts include increased occurrences of
droughts and flood, beach erosion, infrastructure, fresh water
salinization, siltation of waterways and reductions in crop yields,
decreased water availability, melting glaciers, greater exposure to
vector- and water-borne diseases and more intense warm periods
and cold spells. The 2007 IPCC report states that the probabil-
ity of human activities being responsible for global warming is
over 90 per cent.
Ozone
The 1985 Vienna Convention and its 1987 Montreal Protocol
catalysed global action to reduce the use of chemicals damaging
to the ozone layer, which shields the earth from ultraviolet radi-
ation. Since then, developed countries have virtually eliminated
ozone-depleting substances, with the developing world not far
behind. Without these reductions, ozone depletion would have
increased tenfold by 2050 compared to current levels, resulting
in millions more cases of melanoma, other cancers and eye
cataracts. The benefits to humanity cannot be overestimated.
Evaluating international governance and policy planning
WMO has been exemplary in global efforts to provide data on
and assessment of scientific aspects of atmospheric, environment
and water issues, culminating in the adoption of conventions of
significance to international environmental governance.
Indeed, the various Conventions, namely those on ozone,
climate change, biological diversity and desertification are the
fruits of meteorological and hydrological sciences. Some other
international policies, strategies and plans of action that have
benefited from meteorological and hydrological input include
food security, water, oceans, natural disasters, habitat and trans-
boundary pollutants.
In conclusion, the requirement to assess the economic bene-
fits of meteorological and hydrological services presents
significant challenges to the world community. Social scientists,
economists and academia should be involved. In view of the
pervasive nature of the sciences and their global reach and rele-
vance, the results of indepth socio-economic studies may serve
as a model for other mulitidisciplinary sciences.
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