Elements for Life

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FRICAN DROUGHTS

of the 1990s brought worldwide

attention to the devastating effects of severe weather

events. The dependence of African economies on rain-

fed agriculture, combined with weak institutional and physical

infrastructure, social conflict, and an inconsistent political

environment, puts African livelihoods at high risk to climatic

fluctuations. Over the past 20 years scientists have improved

their understanding of the role played by El Niño-Southern

Oscillation (ENSO) – the coupled ocean-atmosphere interac-

tions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean – in African climate

variability. Recent improvements in sea surface temperature

models enable scientists to predict the onset of ENSO events,

and also their effect on global climate. To explore how climate

prediction could be used as a social benefit the United States

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

has launched a number of programmes aimed at studying

policy processes under climate variability and the utility of

seasonal climate predictions. The results have brought to light

the intricate relationship between climate and society, and point

to the opportunity for climate science to become a critical

component of African development policy.

Since 1995 NOAA, along with key partners such as the

United States Agency for International Development Office for

Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID-OFDA), has funded over

100 workshops and research projects across Africa. The work

provides support for local organizations to create and dissem-

inate seasonal climate forecasts, and identifies areas where

forecasting can be used to promote socio-economic stability.

Through these projects NOAA recognized that accurate infor-

mation on seasonal precipitation has the potential to benefit

decision-making in multiple sectors. Within the agricultural

sector the most important decisions are when and where to

plant. Accurate forecasts allow farmers to know when to plant

drought resistant seeds, or capitalize on good rain years by

supplementing with cash crops. At the government level this

information helps determine the amount of food to import and

distribute to maintain national food security. Many vector and

water borne diseases are dependant on swings in temperature

and precipitation. The ability to forecast these variations has

the potential to warn health ministries of an impending

outbreak. Given this information, officials within the health

sector can stockpile medication and fresh water, perform

indoor residual spraying, and distribute insecticide treated nets

where needed. Within the water management sector informa-

tion on cumulative rainfall can be used to manage dam levels.

In particular, information on a dry year can give hydroelectric

officials time to seek out alternative power supplies.

NOAA has used a wide range of approaches to address the

diversity of institutions that stand to benefit from accurate fore-

casting. The first priority has been creating integrated

programmes that bridge scientific research with decision-making

at the local level. Currently, NOAA supports three main regional

climate centres through direct funding and research support: the

African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development

(ACMAD) in Niger, the Southern African Development

Community Drought Monitoring Centre (SDMC) in Zimbabwe,

and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate

Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) in Kenya. All

provide the opportunity for members of the National

Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) from various

countries to work together on regional forecasting projects.

Each centre creates a seasonal climate forecast for its region

prior to the start of the rainy season. The forecast indicates the

likelihood that a given area’s rainfall will be close to, above or

below a thirty year average. To ensure visibility of the forecast

and encourage its timely distribution, each centre organizes a

Climate Outlook Forum (COF). The COFs provide an opportu-

nity for scientists to present findings to stakeholders from all

sectors. In turn, the stakeholders gain a platform for sharing their

needs. The result is an enhanced understanding of the complex-

ity surrounding how society responds to climate information.

While the COFs represent the most visible efforts, they are

only one of the many research activities NOAA and USAID-

OFDA support. By holding workshops with small communities

of subsistence and commercial farmers, NOAA has gained

insight on the needs of the end users. Workshops can be

broken down into two main categories: exploratory and educa-

tional. The exploratory workshops aim to determine if the

forecasts are being used. Most have indicated that while many

farmers are aware of the existence of an official seasonal fore-

cast, few use it in their planning. Interviews have shown that

farmers are eager to use the forecasts; however, they do not

receive information in time to adjust their behaviour accord-

ingly. The education and outreach workshops give participants

Knowledge for sustainable

development: assessing a decade of

African climate forecasting

Jordan R. Winkler, Boston University

Anthony Patt, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Kabineh Konneh, NOAA Climate Programs Office