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Once the forecast is given at the COFs the responsibility

for dissemination is left to the national, provincial and local

governments. Often training is minimal, funding is low, and

forecasts get caught up in the bureaucratic process. By the

time they have reached the end user they are incomplete or

too late. Radio has been identified in many studies as a

primary source of forecast delivery; however, workshop

participants pointed out an inability for listeners to ask ques-

tions or receive clarification. The most effective

communication method will constitute a two-way process

with active participation from the end user.

Often, the form of the forecast offers little help to the recip-

ient. In some cases, the information may conflict with

indigenous methods and can be met with distrust. The prob-

abilistic forecasts offer no information on temporal

distribution of precipitation. Many farmers are accustomed

to the accuracy and detail of the ten-day updates they regu-

larly receive from NMHS, and expect similar detail for the

seasonal forecasts. Other times the spatial scale may be inap-

propriate and require adjustment. There have been cases

where NMHS have waited until the season started to scale

down the forecast for fear of being incorrect. Training must

be available at all levels of the dissemination process.

These results, though preliminary, offer insight for future

research. The main objectives of future studies should be to

support and enhance existing successes while improving fore-

cast design, communication, and training for both users and

producers. A need exists to tailor forecasts based on the specific

requirements of national agencies and smaller user groups. More

effective means of mass communication need to be developed,

including sensitising the media to act as a responsible partner

in the dissemination process. Lastly, every project should work

towards enhancing regional ownership of the processes that are

now internationally sponsored. This can be achieved by devel-

oping frameworks for regional and national funding and

identifying sustainable sources for COFs and other outreach.

The responsibility of scientists and policy makers remains to

provide the information and education necessary for the end

users to gain the most benefit from utilizing the forecasts. The

end users’ opinions, their ability to use the forecasts, and the

benefits they ultimately derive from them, should be the most

important measure of success.

the ability to ask questions regarding the forecast process, and

gain a better understanding of the terminology of the forecasts.

Other research efforts have focused on improving the process

of creating and adjusting forecasts for specific applications.

Within the health sector, new understanding of the link between

malaria and temperature and precipitation, has led to the devel-

opment of malaria forecast models. These models combine the

seasonal forecast with daily ground monitoring and allow offi-

cials to predict malaria outbreaks months in advance. In Kenya,

daily monitoring is being utilized for hydroelectric manage-

ment on the Tana River and is combined with information on

sea surface temperatures to create river flow models.

In hopes of evaluating the effectiveness of these efforts, NOAA

has engaged a team from Boston University and the

International Institute for Applied System Analysis to conduct

two research tasks. First, the team is conducting a meta-analy-

sis of the published and unpublished empirical findings from

the past decade. Second, the team is gathering feedback from

governmental and non-governmental agencies within the

region. The primary goal of the work is to organize and evalu-

ate the results around a set of thematic issues present at both the

top and bottom of the process. Within each issue they will

describe the state of knowledge that existed prior to the start of

the NOAA programmes. Next, the methodologies of the

research are examined and presented alongside the results,

allowing the reader to assess the reliability of the work. Most

importantly they are attempting to identify gaps in the current

state of knowledge, which will provide a stimulus for future

research. The purpose is not to answer definitively the ques-

tions associated with these issues, or promote application in

any particular sector, but to offer a neutral assessment for

policy-makers.

The preliminary findings have shown common achievements

and setbacks through nearly every sector. The majority of

successful applications occur where end users have a high level

of education, regular exposure to the forecasts, or work in a

sector with well-established links to climate scientists. But it is

clear that knowledge of the forecasts is not limited to the

educated. Media coverage of the 1997-1998 ENSO events drew

widespread attention to the existence of the forecasts; however,

the amount of use among less educated groups is limited due

to issues with communication and dissemination.

Global effects of El Niño, showing conditions over Africa

Wet & Warm

Wet

Dry

Dry & Warm

Warm

Dry

Wet & Cool

Warm

Source: IRI