Elements for Life

[

] 163

ATURAL VARIATIONS IN

climate can be seen on all

timescales, whether days, months or years. They may

occur due to external influences such as changes in

the sun’s energy output, or they may be generated by inter-

actions among the different components of the global climate

systems: the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, ice cover, and

land surface. Natural variability of weather and climate can

produce extreme events such as droughts, floods, severe

storms, heat waves and frosts, among others. Accurate

prediction and early warning of such changes depends on

the availability of accurate diagnostic tools.

Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impact of

weather and climate on national economies and community

livelihoods, with such phenomena often associated with food

shortages, severe famine, lack of water, energy, diseases, loss

of life and property and many other socio-economic disrup-

tions. The demographic pressure and the vulnerability of

rainfall-dependent agricultural systems make Africa one of the

most food-insecure and drought-prone regions in the world.

The low level of preparedness as well as inadequate capacity

for rapid and effective response to disasters poses a serious

threat to the continent’s achievement of the UN Millennium

Development Goals (MDGs). Climate-related disasters are

threatening development and limited gains in many countries

in Africa. Extreme climate events such as droughts and floods

have in recent years had devastating socio-economic impacts

in various parts of the continent. Still fresh in our memories

are the October-November 2006 floods across the Greater

Horn of Africa (GHA) countries, the Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia

and Kenya, which affected an estimated 1.8 million people.

Recent progress in climate research and forecasting has

resulted in further development of methods for predicting

short-term variations in climate and their socio-economic

impacts. These advances have provided enormous economic

benefits in coping with extreme weather and climate events.

In Africa, seasonal rainfall variability is one of the major

threats to sustainable socio-economic development. The

heavy rains and floods that occasionally affect the continent

are as equally devastating as the severe, protracted droughts.

The greatest threat to food security posed by excess rainfall

is not related to production or marketing, but to the inabil-

ity of farmers to dry their harvested crops.

The application

of climate information could significantly improve planning

and management of climate sensitive activities and reduce

the associated socio-economic catastrophes prevalent in

many parts of the continent.

Climate products and services

The African Centre of Meteorological Applications for

Development (ACMAD) participates in supporting African

initiatives in climate impact studies and multidisciplinary

activities related to climate variability. Using specialized

international products and observed meteorological data, the

centre has developed methods and techniques to monitor

and predict extreme climate events. ACMAD is responsible

for the preparation and dissemination of climate informa-

tion and products for early warnings on agriculture and food

security, water resources, energy, health and climate disaster

risk reduction in Africa.

To improve weather and climate monitoring, prediction

and early warning systems continent-wide, ACMAD uses

Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data with the support of

partners in the Satellite Application Facility (SAF) consor-

tium, with particular emphasis on severe weather and

extreme climate events, as well as product development.

Such products include seasonal forecasts for West Africa

rainfall and Climate Watch Africa monthly and dekadal

bulletins. In order to enhance and improve the quality of

weather and climate products and services, ACMAD is

involved in the development and application of improved

models to provide skilled predictions. It has made great

advances in the ongoing development of new techniques for

applying numerical weather prediction model outputs to the

production of synthetic weather analyses and forecasts. Some

of these activities have been realized within the framework

of the ongoing African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis

(AMMA) project for West Africa, which is now being

extended to the rest of Africa.

In collaboration with partners, ACMAD has maintained

the provision of products and services to assist users and

stakeholders in deciding on response strategies and adapta-

tion measures to mitigate the impacts of weather and

climate-related disasters. This partnership has continued to

strengthen national capacities to cope with effects of climate

Climate information

applications for sustainable

development in Africa

Dr Leonard N. Njau, Mohamed Kadi, Marie Christine Dufresne,

Jocelyn Perrin, Dr Anthony Patt, and Dr Andre Kamga