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variability and change, thereby enabling countries to develop
national, social and economic policy, as well as programmes
to ensure the sustainable development and achievement of
MDGs.
Sector-specific application of climate information
The emerging demonstration of good practices in the appli-
cation of early warning systems and the integration of
seasonal forecasts in poverty reduction, food security, health,
water resources and energy resource management should be
encouraged. It is imperative, therefore, that appropriate mech-
anisms be established to raise awareness and promote better
understanding through the provision of climate information
and user demand-driven products as management tools.
ACMAD’s Seasonal Rainfall Forecast Forums have been
held for nearly ten years. At the ninth session, held in west
Africa, participants made strong recommendations for
continuing the work undertaken at the preceding forum. The
objectives were to better respond to the needs of users and
their use of seasonal forecast products, in the process of
ensuring improved food security and the prevention and
management of natural hazards. This initiative requires
greater synergy between the producers of climate and envi-
ronmental information, public and private users and the
media, at the national and regional levels. In particular, the
first meeting of these groups allowed the development of
several recommendations and a plan of action for ACMAD
and its partners including:
• Supervising a survey of users to identify the existing
uses of climate forecasts, new potential uses, and areas
where users need additional assistance in understand-
ing forecasts
• Collaborating with ongoing efforts sponsored by the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) to assess forecast use in relation to the survey.
To this end, ACMAD circulated a questionnaire to identify
focal points in the countries, after which responses were
posted to both ACMAD and Boston University’s Web sites. A
total of 48 responses from climate-dependent sectors (agri-
culture, water resources and health, among others) in 14
countries were analysed.
Agriculture and food security
Agriculture is the economic mainstay and major employment
sector of several countries in Africa. Extreme climate events
such as floods and droughts have had severe impacts on agri-
cultural yield, survival of livestock and marine ecosystems.
This in turn heavily impacts food security, often resulting in
hunger, malnutrition, diseases and loss of life. Studies have
shown that heat stress and drought are likely to have a nega-
tive impact on animal health, production of dairy products,
meat and reproduction. Climate information can be used to
develop strategies and programmes for sustainable agricul-
tural development. In 1999 ACMAD launched a pilot
demonstration project using radio and Internet (RANET)
technology as a tool to disseminate climate information to
rural communities and stakeholders. Economy-wide model-
ling in Mozambique suggests considerable potential
aggregate benefits from market applications of climate fore-
casts in staple grain markets. Farm system models that
incorporate details of soils, crops and management options
have been developed for application.
2
Integrating seasonal
forecasts into food security assessment has been explored at
sub-regional levels.
The economies of many African countries are driven by
rain-fed agriculture. Studies have shown that gross domes-
tic product (GDP) is strongly correlated with rainfall in these
countries. The occurrence of poor rainfall or drought will
adversely affect agriculture and food security with serious
implications for economic growth in Africa.
Water
Africa’s water resources are not evenly distributed, and are
often not located in areas with the greatest demand. Africa
has 17 major river basins with catchment areas of above
100,000 km². However, rainfall is the major source of water,
be it surface water or groundwater. The construction of dams
in rivers is mainly to generate hydropower for both manu-
facturing industries and domestic use. Geothermal power
generation also depends on groundwater, which is recharged
by rainfall. The application of climate information has played
a significant role in integrated water resources management
(IWRM) and in the development of long-term implementa-
tion strategies under conditions of water scarcity. The
management of several dams in major rivers in Africa is
highly dependent on seasonal rainfall forecasts. Several
authorities in charge of water resource management have not
only integrated climate products into the management of
water resources, but also formed partnerships with climate
product providers in developing models as water resource
management tools. For example, ICPAC has developed a
regional capacity in streamflow forecasting and the
regional/national Food Risk Information and Early Warning
System (FRIEWS). Several countries in Africa rely on hydro-
electricity, which is controlled by rivers’ streamflow into
hydropower generating dams. ICPAC has developed simple
models relating the sea surface temperature and rainfall vari-
ability to hydro-energy production.
3
Energy
The energy sector is very important for the socio-economic
development of countries in Africa. Electricity is vital for
both industrial manufacturing and domestic use.
Hydropower production is significantly affected by extreme
climate events such as droughts and floods. Too much rain-
fall causes silting that could damage turbines as well as
posing a threat to dam structures, as witnessed in the
November 2006 floods in Kenya. Severe droughts have led to
power rationing, disrupting various socio-economic activi-
ties in many countries in Africa. The provision of climate
information and products that are sector-specific for inte-
grated hydropower resources management has contributed
greatly to sustainable power generation.
Health
Temperatures in most African countries fall within a range of
15-25 degrees Celsius. Information on temperature is impor-
tant in the control of malaria and other vector-borne disease
outbreaks. Incidences of cholera are higher in areas with high
temperatures and during periods of heavy rain accompanied
by floods. Temperatures between 20 and 28 degrees Celsius
with high rainfall (high relative humidity) favour the survival