Real Risk

[

] 24

URRICANE

VAN

category 3 system, impacted Grenada

and its dependencies on 7 September 2004, devastating

the island of Grenada.

The Organization of Eastern

Caribbean States (OECS) organized a mission of various experts

jointly with the Economic Commission for Latin America and the

Caribbean (ECLAC), to assess the socio-economic impact of the

hurricane and provide policy recommendations for risk reduction

and natural disaster mitigation.

The OECS/ECLAC mission estimated the total damage of

Hurricane Ivan at XCD2.4 billion, more than twice the current value

of GDP.

The bulk of this was direct damage (89 per cent of the total

and 201 per cent of GDP). Indirect damage accounted for 11 per

cent of the total (26 per cent of GDP).

At the sectoral level the effects were registered mostly in infra-

structure and particularly in housing. Estimates indicated that 89

per cent of the housing stock, corresponding to 80 per cent of the

total population, registered some type of damage caused by the

hurricane.

In the year of the disaster, the economy contracted by 3 per cent

and the rate of unemployment rose sharply to 20 per cent. In spite

of the subsequent and further damage caused by Hurricane Emily,

the economy recovered in 2005 (5 per cent growth in GDP),

spurred mainly by the dynamism of the construction sector.

Significant imbalances were registered in the fiscal and external

accounts. These persisted in 2005 (minus 3 per cent and minus

9 per cent of GDP in 2004; minus 17 per cent and minus 34 per

cent of GDP in 2005 for the fiscal and balance of payments out-

turn respectively).

Following Hurricane Ivan, a series of measures and programmes

were undertaken using the recommendations put forward in the

OECS/ECLAC damage assessment report as a reference point. The

aimwas to get the economy back on track and to reduce the risk and

exposure to future natural disasters.

Some of these measures and

programmes were designed at the national level while others were

specifically targeted to the housing, education, health, and produc-

tive sectors.

A key issue worth examining is the extent to which these measures

and respective programmes have been able to strengthen the

country’s level of resilience to natural disasters and increase the

awareness of Grenada’s population to natural risk. A corollary ques-

tion is whether the people of Grenada have been able to learn from

past disasters for better future protection and improve risk reduc-

tion measures, i.e. whether these measures and policies have been

able to ‘build back better.’

At the national level, the Government created two important agen-

cies: the Agency for Reconstruction and Development and the

National Disaster Management Agency. The former was charged

with the task of creating an improved policy and institutional frame-

work for reconstruction, mobilizing resources for reconstruction

and the monitoring of project implementation. The agency was

launched in March 2005, more than a year and six months after

the passage of Hurricane Ivan. In addition, the IMF recently reported

in May 2005 that the Agency for Reconstruction and Development

was not yet funded and needed to improve the transparency of its

operations.

The National Disaster Management Agency drafted a National

Disaster Plan and has outlined an organized response to future disas-

ter occurrences. The agency has also started a dissemination

campaign on the radio and in the press about disaster management

and preparedness.

In the productive sectors, measures have been put in place mainly

for the agricultural and tourism industries and, to a lesser extent, in

the manufacturing industry. Measures for the former include the

restoration of agricultural production and infrastructure and

attempts to diversify the sector, improve its competitiveness and

strengthen its linkages with other sectors. Notwithstanding these

Risk reduction and mitigation in the aftermath

of Hurricane Ivan: a year and a half after the

OECS/ECLAC damage assessment

Esteban Pérez Caldentey, UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

The devastation caused to part of one hotel in Grand Anse

Photo: ECLAC