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ORHAB personnel resulted in proactive testing of razor clams. The

samples came back negative for toxin (< 4 ppm DA), assuring that

the popular May harvest could occur with safe shellfish.

Recognition of ORHAB’s value by the State of Washington created a

sustainable source of funding using license fees for recreational

harvesting of razor clams. The forecasts generated by ORHAB have

increased the commercial, subsistence and recreational harvest of

razor clams and lowered the health risks to consumers.

Expansion of the programme

In the Gulf of Maine almost annual blooms of

Alexandrium fundyense

can cause human illness and death from Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning

due to a potent neurotoxin that accumulates in shellfish. A concerted

effort to understand

Alexandrium

dynamics in the Gulf of Maine has

led to significantly enhanced regional response capabilities. This

effort began in 1998 with the NOAA and National Science

Foundation-supported ECOHAB-Gulf of Maine project, and has

continued through a variety of projects. New molecular methods for

rapidly detecting and mapping

Alexandrium

are now used to track the

bloom in almost real time. These data, combined with oceanographic

and meteorological data from ships and moorings, are coupled with

a biophysical model to forecast the spread of the bloom.

This fore-

cast is used to provide weekly updates of probable bloom magnitude

and location to marine resource managers so they can focus

sampling. The model, coupled with annual cyst location maps, is

also used to predict bloom potential prior to the bloom season. Model

results are presently provided in a demonstration mode to 150

regional shellfish managers and researchers via a listserv. This inte-

gration of ocean observing system data with models is an example

of the predictive, regional, ecosystem-based research being supported

by NOAA to address coastal ocean issues.

Preliminary work has also begun in adapting the Florida HAB fore-

cast concept to other regions of the US. These include the Great Lakes,

where toxic cyanobacterial blooms degrade water quality and release

hepatotoxins and along the California coast where ASP is a problem.

In each of these instances, satellite imagery results integrated with local

meteorology, the best hydrological models available and local sampling

capacity are used to determine if relevant forecasts are possible.

Real world issues

Some issues need to be solved before development and implemen-

tation of a HAB warning system. The transition of research into

application and operation is not a straightforward proposition.

Funding is often available either for research or for operations.

Unfortunately, as the transition from research to operation is a hybrid

capability bridging these activities, transition projects do not fit into

the existing planning modes and suffer from lack of funding.

However, this bridge is indispensable to allow for the use of new

management knowledge.

Each HAB organism is unique and the causes and impacts of each

are different, resulting in significant differences between regions (e.g.

morphology, currents, temperature). Although some aspects of fore-

casting HABs can be transferred between types of HABs and regions,

forecasts are generally not entirely transferable from one region to the

other. Considerable additional research and information is needed

for each new forecast and further efforts are required in order to

provide the Nation with a National Warning System for HABs.

The potential liability associated with any forecast is another issue to

consider. In the case of an inaccurate forecast, for example an error on

Cyanobacteria HAB scum along the shores of the Lake of the

Woods (Ontario, Canada)

Image: Hedy Kling, Algal Taxonomy and ecology Inc. (Canada)

the landfall location of a HAB, who is responsible if some

people get sick or die or if a beach is closed and nothing

happens? What are the possibilities for lawsuits? This also

brings to light the different roles of the public versus private

sectors in operating forecasts. Should the operation of such

ecological forecasts be reserved to Federal or State entities

or should there be a close collaboration between public

and private sectors in the same manner that presently exists

for weather forecasts? These are some of the questions that

NOAA is presently addressing.

NOAA is a US Federal Agency, and a member of the

President’s Office of Science and Technology Policy

Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction. One of its goals is

to provide its users with useful tools that can assist the

US in becoming a safer and more resilient nation. The

research performed on HABs by NOAA/NCCOS and its

collaborators at all levels of government (federal, state,

local and tribal), academia, and private industry has led

to advanced capabilities for HAB detection and predic-

tion not possible only a decade ago. HAB forecasts result

in faster and better focused responses by health and

natural resource managers, reduce losses to coastal

communities, allow for better resources management, and

could serve as a basis for international collaboration.