The Full Picture

[

] 246

Global agriculture in the 21st century:

sustainable production of food,

fibre, fuel and more

Ghassem R. Asrar, PhD, Deputy Administrator, Agricultural Research Service,

United States Department of Agriculture

griculture is assuming an increasingly important role in

today’s global economy. In addition to its traditional role

as a producer of food, feed, and fibre, agriculture is now

expected to provide bio-based energy for a growing population,

and to do so sustainably.

In the past, scientific discoveries and technological innovations were

instrumental in meeting the world’s increasing demands for food,

fibre, feed and water. They are now even more vital if agriculture is

to also provide bio-based energy while maintaining/enhancing Earth’s

renewable resources. Throughout the history of modern agriculture,

technological innovations have resulted in significant increases in

food, feed and fibre production globally, while the total amount of

water and energy used to achieve this growth stayed the same or

decreased significantly in many parts of the world. Advances in plant

breeding, water management, conservation tillage practices and

weather prediction contributed to this tremendous achievement. The

question now whether we can sustain or enhance this

pace of innovation to meet the growing demand for food,

fibre, water and renewable energy from agricultural

ecosystems for future generations while we maintain the

quality and integrity of these ecosystems and the envi-

ronment.

During the past 300 years, the transition from natural

ecosystems into agriculturally used and managed ecosys-

tems has accelerated, especially since the 1950s. More

land was converted to cropland in the first few years after

1950 than during the 150-year period of 1700–1850.

The world population also grew from 2.5 billion to 6.5

billion during 1950–2005, a factor of 2.6. The world

agricultural output grew by a factor of 5, keeping pace

with population growth.

Since 1950, agricultural output has been growing at

about two per cent per year, with higher rates in devel-

Source: Fuglie, Keith O., James M. MacDonald, and Eldon Ball. Productivity Growth in US Agriculture. EB-9, US Dept. of Agriculture, Econ. Res. Serv. September 2007

Changes in US agricultural output, inputs and total factor productivity

since 1948

Technological innovations have resulted in significant increases in food, feed and fibre production globally,

while the total amount of water and energy used to achieve this has stayed the same or decreased

Total factor productivity measures total output per total inputs, or the overall efficiency of agricultural production

OCIETAL

ENEFIT

REAS

– A

GRICULTURE