46 / 218
[
] 46
S
OCIO
-
ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
in Japan, as well as in other
parts of East Asia are increasingly vulnerable to weather
and climate variability. Timely and user-oriented weather
and climate information is needed in order to prevent and
mitigate adverse weather effects, and to produce socio-
economic benefits. For this reason, the Japan Meteorological
Agency (JMA) has been engaged in operational daily-to-
seasonal forecasts disseminated to central and local
governments and to the public, while making efforts in collab-
oration with user communities to facilitate application of
weather/climate information.
Pilot project: tailored
weather/climate information service
After the cool summer of 2003, which caused extensive damage
to socio-economic activities, especially agriculture, JMA initi-
ated collaborative research with eight prefectural governments
in Japan. These were intended as model cases to develop
tailored weather/climate information for agriculture, based on
medium- and extended-range ensemble forecasts.
Tailored forecasts for different types of agricultural damage
were identified in cooperation with local governments.
Relevance differs from region to region, due to difference in
crop natures, weather/climate conditions and other reasons.
For example, paddy rice cultivation in northern parts of Japan
is vulnerable to cool weather. Deep-water-irrigation manage-
ment is an effective measure to protect the rice from
cool-weather damage, especially in the early stage of the
growth period. Thus, in Hokkaido, the prefectural govern-
ment issues agricultural management advice to farmers, when
daily minimum temperatures of 13 degrees Celsius or below
are predicted by the weekly weather forecast.
In order to verify tailored forecasts and the timing of
issuance of agricultural advice, a simulation study was
conducted with the forecast services in Hokkaido for the
cool summer of 2003. In this experiment, a meteorological
observatory issued a special agro-meteorological report,
which consisted of a brief description of the expected
weather situation and a probabilistic forecast of temperature
below specific thresholds derived from medium/extended-
range ensemble forecast. The local government issued an
agricultural management report according to the forecasts.
The simulation result indicated that the agricultural manage-
ment advice could have been issued five times, whereas it
was actually issued only once. The results also indicated that
the ratio of sterile rice could have been reduced by 5 per cent
from 14-23 per cent, if early warnings and agricultural
management advice had been issued more promptly to guide
farmers.
These pilot studies confirmed that it is essential for meteo-
rological and agricultural organizations to form collaborative
approaches in developing appropriate and timely
weather/climate information, which can be incorporated into
users’ decision-making processes.
Following this successful investigation, other meteorolog-
ical observatories, in collaboration with local governments
and institutions, started to consider the possibility of issuing
tailored probabilistic forecasts and agrometeorological infor-
mation to mitigate agricultural damage related to weather and
climate. Since June 2006, tailored forecasts and information
using ensemble forecasts have been operational in 14 prefec-
tures out of 47 in Japan, with a further ten under
consideration.
Early warning information on
extreme temperature events
In March 2007 JMA initiated the provision of early warning
information on extreme temperature events (hereafter,
called ‘early warning information’). The early warning infor-
mation forecasts the possible occurrence of significantly
high/low temperature events with a one-to-two-week lead
time. This information aims to mitigate the impacts of the
extremely high/low temperatures on socio-economic activ-
ities such as agriculture, electric power industry, and human
health.
Through dialogues with user communities, it became evident
that the early warning information was expected to be applic-
able to a variety of sectors.
Agriculture
– Deep-water irrigation is one of the most effec-
tive management measures to prevent and mitigate cool
weather damage to paddy rice. In citrus cultivation, early
prediction of low temperatures can prompt early harvesting,
thus reducing frost and freeze damage.
Electric power
– Scheduled maintenance of power plants is
conducted through the year to guarantee stable service. Re-
scheduling of maintenance is reliant on power supply outlook,
which is closely related to temperature variations. Thus early
warning information on extreme temperature events will aid
the more effective running of power plants.
Health
– Early warning information on extreme tempera-
ture events can be used for predicting the numbers affected by
temperature-sensitive diseases such as flu or heat stroke. This
Weather and climate information services for
socio-economic benefit: challenges in Japan
Koichi Kurihara, Japan Meteorologial Agency