Elements for Life

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information helps medical institutions to prepare, and to raise
public awareness.
Disaster prevention – Snowfall is one of the major factors
which considerably affects socio-economic activities in
northern Japan and areas along the Sea of Japan. Early infor-
mation on snowfall enables local governments to prepare
human resources and snow-removal machines for quick
response.
Early warning information is issued when an extreme temper-
ature is predicted within two weeks, and with a probability of
occurrence at 20 per cent or more. An extreme temperature
event is defined as having a climatological occurrence rate of
less than 10 per cent. The information consists of a brief
description of the expected weather situation and probabilis-
tic forecast information. The probabilistic prediction products
derived from the extended-range ensemble forecast for 11
climatological divisions over Japan are produced twice a week,
thus allowing regular updates.
The early warning information service is operating on a trial
basis until early 2008, with limited provision to specific orga-
nizations, each of which is well experienced in utilizing
probabilistic forecast information (hereafter, called ‘coopera-
tive organizations’). In the trial period, the information will be
reviewed and improved according to requirements and sugges-
tions from the cooperative organizations. After the trial, the
information will be improved based on feedback from users.
There are also plans to develop early warning techniques for
other extreme climate events associated with precipitation and
sunshine duration in the near future.
International cooperation
Techniques and knowledge accumulated in Japan are expected
to be applicable in other parts of the world. JMA has been
assisting National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
(NMHS) in the Asia-Pacific region with climate services
through the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC). TCC provides
various kinds of climate monitoring and forecast products via
its Web site ) and has organized
training courses and workshops.
In order to further assist NMHS in advancing climate infor-
mation application, JMA has developed statistical techniques
downscaling one-month ensemble forecast GPV data to
observation stations in East and Southeast Asia. Probabilistic
forecasts for the stations will be available through the
website.
Towards upgrading climate information services
Fully user-oriented weather and climate information services,
where information supports each user to judge and act prop-
erly in respective socio-economic activities, is our long term
goal. JMA is also planning to expand the contents of early
warning information according to emerging needs, and based
on an improved understanding of weather and climate predic-
tions.
Efforts in Japan towards providing user-oriented
weather/climate information and forecasts unquestionably
contribute to socio-economic benefits. However, it is neces-
sary to continue, and extend cooperation with NMHS, sharing
expertise and experience, in order to improve international
weather and climate service.
Selected tailored forecasts for agriculture in Japan
Prefecture Crop Targeted Tailored probabilistic forecast Target period Damage
damage or Target element Threshold Used forecast prevention
operation Degrees (˚C) management
Hokkaido paddy rice cool-weather daily minimum below 13 weekly weather July to August deep-water
damage temperature forecast management
weekly mean below 19 weekly mean
temperature forecast one-week
ahead
Aomori and Miyagi paddy rice timing of accumulated daily 960 or above weekly mean mid August to mid
harvesting mean temperature forecast up until September
from head spout one-month ahead
Iwate and Miyagi paddy rice cool-weather daily minimum 17 or below weekly weather July to early August deep-water
damage temperature forecast management
Miyagi paddy rice warm-weather daily minimum 25 or above weekly weather August to mid water-flow
damage temperature forecast September management
Nagano apple frost damage daily minimum below -4, weekly weather April to May and fanning and
temperature -2, 0 or 2 forecast October to combustion
November
Hiroshima citrus frost damage daily minimum below -2 or 0 weekly weather December to March early harvesting
temperature forecast
weekly mean below 4 weekly mean
temperature forecast one-week
ahead
Source: Investigation on the improvement of agrometeorological service (in Japanese). JMA, 2005