Risk Wise

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All natural hazards risk awareness in Australia:

examples of community engagement

Dr Ray Canterford, Jim Davidson, Jim Elliott, Dr Graham Mills,

John Nairn and Alan Sharp, Australian Bureau of Meteorology

ith the approach of the 2007/08 austral summer a

predicted shift to La Niña brought the prospect of

flooding rains for some regions of Australia, while

others would almost certainly continue to endure the impact of

severe drought. How these messages were received by the

Australian community provides enduring examples of risk

communication. Whether through the development and distrib-

ution of flood inundation maps or a seasonal outlook for

expected fire behaviour, the community had the opportunity to

engage and adopt risk mitigation strategies. While delivering

these services, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is construct-

ing a new tsunami warning system that brings improved

monitoring and science to a redefined understanding of risk. No

matter which hazardous event threatens, prior investigations,

statements and warnings will assist the community to establish

its exposure to risk. Cultural and language barriers to under-

standing these messages have been addressed through an

indigenous training programme in northern Australia.

Flood mapping

Flood maps are a very effective way to engage with the community

to improve people’s awareness of flood risk as well as to manage that

risk during flood events. These maps show the extent, depth, veloc-

ity and hazard of flooding. Maps can be prepared offline for

nominated (design) events or historical events, to improve flood

awareness and to assist with a range of flood risk assessment, plan-

ning and regulation activities, as well as online to show the extent

of flooding to date including predictions of likely future areas of

inundation. Online mapping is particularly helpful in response oper-

ations to assist with planning evacuations in advance of the flood’s

arrival, but also in post-flood recovery planning by providing guid-

ance on when inundated areas will become accessible.

Flood maps can be derived using a variety of techniques, includ-

ing aerial photography of actual floods or the use of hydrologic and

hydraulic modelling to predict flood levels and the extent of flood-

ing. Satellite-based multi-sensor imagery is becoming more widely

available, and improved digital terrain modelling is also assisting

the task. A recent application of flood mapping utilising this growing

remote sensing capability is the FloodMap project, which has devel-

oped a near real-time flood mapping tool to help reduce the

vulnerability of communities at risk of flooding in remote parts of

northern Australia.

Much of this area experiences regular flood-

ing, and the harsh terrain and sheer distances involved mean that

regional centres, remote homesteads and indigenous communities

are significantly more vulnerable than communities in

metropolitan and major regional centres. To meet this

particular challenge, remote sensing imagery coupled

with various geospatial data sets and other available

data is being used to build a visual tool for displaying

flood information that is directly accessible by these

communities. The goals of the project include ensur-

ing, or at least facilitating the incorporation of local

needs (including local indigenous language require-

ments and traditional knowledge) into the presentation

and timely communication of flood information

through maps in a way that is understandable to those

at risk. This requires a governance approach to the

preparation of the maps and display tool that engages

with the different communities at risk on their own

terms. A series of workshops with indigenous and other

local groups has been held to foster this type of input.

The FloodMap service provided very helpful MODIS

imagery during the flooding from tropical cyclone

Emma around the Murchison area in Western Australia

in March 2006.

Seasonal Bushfire Assessment Workshops

Weather forecasts in support of fire-fighting operations

are a vital community service, but awareness of the

degree of risk of wildfire activity in a forthcoming season

can allow land managers to allocate resources and under-

take mitigation measures before emergencies occur.

Seasonal Bushfire Assessment Workshops (SBAW),

modelled on similar workshops that have been held in

the United States since 2003, have been held in Australia

since 2006. Because the fire seasons vary from northern

to southern Australia, one workshop focusing on the

tropical latitudes is held at the start of the dry season,

and one focusing on southern parts in late winter. The

goal of the workshops is to estimate the bushfire poten-

tial for the forthcoming season. Here, seasonal bushfire

potential is defined (by the participants of the work-

shops) as:

The chance of a fire or number of fires occurring of

such size, complexity or other impact which requires

resources beyond the area in which it or they originate.

This is not simply a function of the weather or climate.

Rather, the potential for a significant fire situation is the