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[

] 278

N

otes

& R

eferences

Modelling in earth system science

-

NASA Advisory Council, (1988): ‘Earth System Science: A Closer

View’, Report of the Earth System Sciences Committee, National

Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, D.C., 208pp.

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Budyko, M. I., (1969): ‘The effect of solar radiation variations on the

climate of the earth’, Tellus, 21: p611-619.

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Claussen M., et al., (2002): ‘A global climatic model based on the

energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system’, Clim. Dyn., 18:

p579-586.

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Friedlingstein, P., et al., (2006): ‘Climate – carbon cycle feedback

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Yoshikawa, C., M. Kawamiya, T. Kato, Y. Yamanaka, and T. Matsuno,

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Acknowledgments

-

This article is supported by Innovative Program of Climate Change

Projection for the 21st Century of the Ministry of Education, Culture,

Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). The Earth Simulator was

used for outputs introduced in the article.

Seasonal to decadal prediction: improving accessibility

and widening applications

1.

Ogallo, L., Bessemoulin, P., Ceron, J-P., Mason, S., Connor, S.J.

2008: Adapting to climate variability and change: the Climate

Outlook Forum process. WMO Bulletin, Vol. 57, No.2, 93-102.

Goddard, L. and Dilley, M. 2005. El Nino: Catastrophe or

opportunity. J. Climate, 18: 651-665.

Glantz, M.H. 2000: Currents of change: El Niño and La Niña impacts

on climate and society. Cambridge University Press.

2.

Kirtman, B. and Pirani, A. 2009: The state of the art of seasonal

prediction. BAMS, 90, 455-458.

3.

Ogallo et al,. op. cit.

IRI publication IRI-CW/01/2, 2000: Coping with the Climate: a way

forward.

A multi-stakeholder review of Regional Climate Outlook Forums

concluded at an international workshop October 16-20, 2000,

Pretoria, South Africa.

4.

Graham, R., Gordon, M., McLean, P.J., Ineson, S., Huddleston, M.R.,

Davey, M.K., Brookshaw, A., Barnes, R.T.H. 2005: A performance

comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office

seasonal prediction General Circulation Model. Tellus, 57A, 320-339.

5.

ibid.

6.

Graham, R., Gordon, C., Huddleston, M., Davey, M., Norton, W.,

Colman, A., Scaife, A., Brookshaw, A and others 2006: The 2005/6

winter in Europe and the United Kingdom: Part 1 – how the Met

Office forecast was produced and communicated. Weather, 61, 327-

336.

7.

Julie, A. and Céron, J.P. 2007: Seasonal forecasting in West Africa:

a strategic partnership for a sustainable development of a cross

boundary river catchment. Elements for Life, Tudor Rose and WMO,

70-71.

8.

Vitart, F., M. R. Huddleston, M. Déqué, D. Peake, T. N. Palmer,

T. N. Stockdale, M. K. Davey, S. Ineson, A. Weisheimer. 2007:

Bioclimatic modelling: linking biodiversity and climate science

1.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, (2005). ‘Ecosystems and Human

Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis’. World Resources Institute,

Washington, DC.

2.

IPCC, (2007): Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and

Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth

Assessment. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden

and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,

976pp.

3.

Ibid.

4.

Midgley, G.F., Hannah L., Millar D., Rutherford M.C., and L.W.

Powrie, (2002). ‘Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to

anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot’. Global

Ecology & Biogeography. Volume 11, Issue 6, p445-451

5.

Parmesan, C. and G. Yohe. (2003). ‘A globally coherent fingerprint

of climate change impacts across natural systems’. Nature. Vol 421.

p37-42.

6.

Pearson, R.G. and T.P. Dawson. (2003). ‘Predicting the impacts

of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate

envelope models useful?’ Global Ecology & Biogeography. Vol 12.

p361-371

7.

Araújo, M.B., Whittaker, R.J., Ladle, R.J., and Erhard M. (2005).

‘Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate

change’. Glob Ecol Biogeogr. Vol. 14. p529-538

8.

The collection of ecosystems within a particular climatic zone with

similar structure but differing species:

Gitay H., Suarez A., Dokken D. J., and R. T. Watson. (2002).

‘Climate Change and Biodiversity’: IPCC Technical Paper V. p12.

Accessed at:

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/climate-

changes-biodiversity-en.pdf

9.

Global Climate Change and Biodiversity. (2003). Summary of

papers and discussion. Edited by R. E. Green, M. Harley, L. Miles,

J. Scharlemann, A. Watkinson and O. Watts University of East

Anglia, Norwich, UK, accessed at:

http://www.jncc.gov.uk/pdf/

MJHGlobalclimatechange_14.08.03.pdf

10.

Gitay, H., et al,. (2002), op. cit..

11.

Parmesan and Yohe, (2003), op. cit..

12.

As laid down by the IPCC, very high confidence means that more

than 95 percent of observed changes are principally caused by climate

change.

13.

Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. (2003).

‘Interlinkages between biological diversity and climate change.

Advice on the integration of biodiversity considerations into the

implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change and its Kyoto protocol’. Montreal, SCBD, 154p.

(CBD Technical Series no. 10).

14.

Parmesan, C. (2006). ‘Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to

Recent Climate Change’. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and

Systematics 37: p637–69

15.

Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. (2008). Draft

Findings of the First Meeting of the Ad hoc Technical Expert Group

on Biodiversity and Climate Change. London, 17–21 November

2008. Accessed at:

https://www.cbd.int/doc/meetings/cc/ahteg-

bdcc-01/other/ahteg-bdcc-01-findings-en.pdf

16.

Ibid.

17.

Ibid.

18.

Group on Earth Observations. (2008). The Global Earth Observation

System of Systems (GEOSS). Accessed at:

www.earthobservations.org/