Climate Sense

[

] 279

otes

& R

eferences

variations of landfalling tropical cyclones in East Asia. Part I: Time

series analysis’, International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/

joc.1782.

Liu, K. S. and J. C. L. Chan, (2008): ‘Interdecadal variability of

western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks’, Journal of Climate, 21,

4464-4476.

Frank, W. M. and G. S. Young, (2007): ‘The interannual variability of

tropical cyclones’, Monthly Weather Review, 135, 3587-3598.

Saffir, H. S., (2003): ‘Communicating damage potentials and

minimizing hurricane damage’, Hurricanes, R. Simpson, Ed.,

American Geophysical Union, 155-164.

Chan, J. C. L., (2006): Comments on ‘Changes in Tropical Cyclone

Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment’,

Science, 311, 1713b.

Chan, J. C. L., (2007): ‘Interannual variations of intense typhoon

activity’, Tellus, 59A, 455-460.

Chan, J. C. L., (2008): ‘Decadal variations of intense typhoon

occurrence in the western North Pacific’, Proceedings of the Royal

Society A, 464, 249–272.

Kossin, J. P., K. R. Knapp, D. J. Vimont, R. J. Murnane, and B.

A. Harper, (2007): ‘A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane

variability and trends’, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L04815,

doi:10.1029/2006GL028836.

Chan and Liu (2004)

Chan, J. C. L., (2009): ‘Thermodynamic control on the climate of

intense tropical cyclones: Atlantic vs. others’, Proceedings of the

Royal Society A, 465 (in press)

10.

Sugi, M., A. Noda, and N. Sato, (2002): ‘Influence of global warming

on tropical cyclone climatology: an experiment with the JMA global

model’, Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 80: 249-272,

DOI:10.2151/jmsj.80.249.

11.

Stowasser, M., Y. Wang, and K. Hamilton, (2007): ‘Tropical cyclone

changes in the western North Pacific in a global warming scenario’,

Journal of Climate, 20, 2378-2396.

Yoshimura, J., M. Sugi and A. Noda, (2006): ‘Influence of greenhouse

warming on tropical cyclone frequency’, Journal of Meteorological

Society of Japan, 84, 405-428.

12.

Leslie, L. M., D. J. Karoly, M. Leplastrier, and B. W. Buckley, (2007):

‘Variability of tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific Ocean

using a high-resolution climate model’, Meteorology and Atmospheric

Physics, 97, 171-180.

13.

Knutson, T. R., J. J. Sirutis, S. T. Garner, I. M. Held, and R. E. Tuleya,

(2007): ‘Simulation of the recent Multi-decadal increase of Atlantic

Hurricane activity using an 18-km-Grid regional model’, Bulletin of

the American Meteorological Society, 88(10), 1549-1565.

Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams, (2008): ‘Hurricanes

and global warming: results from downscaling IPCC AR4

simulations’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89 (3),

347-367.

Further references

McDonald, R. E., D. G. Bleaken, D. R. Cresswell, V. D. Pope, and

C. A. Senior, (2005): ‘Tropical storms: representation and diagnosis

in climate models and the impacts of climate change’, Climate

Dynamics, 25: 19-36, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-004-0491-0.

Hasegawa, A. and S. Emori, (2005): ‘Tropical cyclones and associated

precipitation over the Western North Pacific: T106 atmospheric GCM

simulation for present-day and doubled CO

climates’, SOLA, 1, 145-

148, SOI:10.2151/sola.2005-038.

Dynamically-Based Seasonal forecasts of Atlantic Tropical-Storm

Activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34,

L16815.

Gray, W.M. 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part II:

Forecasting its variability. Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 1669-1683.

Saunders, M.A. and Lea, A.S. 2005: Seasonal prediction of hurricane

activity reaching the coast of the United States. Nature, 434, 1005-

1008.

10.

Bell, G. D., Halpert, M. S., Schnell, R.C., Higgins, R.W., Lawrimore,

J., Kousky, V.E., Tinker, R., Thiaw, W., Chelliah, M., Artusa, A.,

2000: Climate assessment for 1999. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81

(June), S1–S50.

11.

Thomson, M.C. Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Mason, S.J. and others. 2006:

Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-

model ensembles. Nature, Vol. 439, No. 7076, 575-579.

12.

Smith, D.M., Cusack, S., Colman, A.W., Folland, C.K., Harris, G. R.,

Murphy, J.M. 2007: Improved surface temperature prediction for the

coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317, 796-799.

13.

Met Office authors were supported by the Joint DECC, Defra, MoD

Integrated Climate Programme – DECC/Defra (GA01101), MoD

(CBC/2B/0417_Annex C5). Rowan Sutton acknowledges support

from the UK National Environment Research Council.

Strategic planning in the Caribbean: the role of seasonal forecasts

Amarakoon AMD, Chen AA, Rawlins SC, Taylor MA, ‘Dengue

Epidemics – its association with precipitation and temperature, and

its seasonality in some Caribbean countries’, CHRC 49th annual

conference, Grenada, April 2004.

Depradine C, Lovell E, ‘The incidence of asthmatic attacks in

Barbados’, West Indian Medical Journal, Vol 56, No 5, October

2008.

Prospero JM, Blades E, Naidu R, Mathison G, Thani H, Lavoie MC,

‘Relationship between African dust carried in the Atlantic trade

winds and surges in pediatric asthma attendances in the Caribbean’,

International Journal of Biometeorology, 52:8, 823-832.

www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=PCLIMA

&TB2=/clima/pronosticoclimatico.htm.

Seasonal climate outlooks for assistance in water management

Pearson CP (2008). Short and medium-term climate information for

water management. World Meteorological Organisation Bulletin 57

(3), 173-177.

Welles E, Sorooshian S, Carter G, Olsen B (2007). Hydrologic

verification: A call for action and collaboration. Bulletin of the

American Meteorological Society 88(4), 503-511.

Sorooshian S, Lawford R, Try P, Rossow W, Roads J, Polcher

J, Sommeria G, Schiffer R (2005). Water and energy cycles:

Investigating the links. World Meteorological Organisation Bulletin

54 (2), 58-64.

Bandaragoda C, Tarboton DG, Woods RA (2004). Application of

TOPNET in the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project. Journal

of Hydrology 298(1-4): 178–201.

Changes in the climate of East Asia tropical cyclones

Kubota, H. and J. C. L. Chan, (2009): ‘Interdecadal

variability of tropical cyclone landfall in the Philippines from

1902 to 2005’, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L12802,

doi:10.1029/2009GL038108.

Chan, J. C. L. and M. Xu, (2009): ‘Interannual and interdecadal