Elements for Life

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cance of this enhancement we built the yearly LST anomaly

between 2002 and 2003.

LAIC concept can explain the existence of the TIR anomalies

prior to major earthquakes. Using the collected experimental

data, we can reconstruct the possible evolution of the atmos-

phere-ionosphere anomalies preceding the Colima earthquake.

From the end of December 2003 we observe nighttime surface

temperature increases in the area of the earthquake preparation

(Curve A). One can associate this anomaly with the start of the

possible radon gas anomaly – the heating starts in the surface

ground layer. Then the gases appear in the near surface layer of

the atmosphere and heating becomes noticeable on the daytime

records of MODIS and on the records of the local meteorologi-

cal observatories (Curve D). The thermal air anomaly reaches its

maximum in the middle of January and is accompanied by the

absolute monthly minimum of the relative air humidity.

In summary, the complex analysis of TIR satellite data

retrieved by polar orbiting satellite measurements around the

time of selected earthquakes reveals that transient TIR anom-

alies occurred prior to these earthquakes and confirmed the

earlier findings. The process starts along the main tectonic

fault zone and variations could be seen in a radius of approx-

imately 100km around the epicentre over the land and sea.

The optimal conditions for detecting similar anomalies are

dry, cloud-free, low-vegetation scenes with a long observa-

tion baseline. Independent techniques based on different

Earth observation satellite sources confirms the existence of

positive TIR anomalies prior to strong earthquakes, charac-

terised by different seismo-tectonic settings. This outcome

could be used as basis for theoretical studies refining the

mechanism of these phenomena and for creating a new layer

of a global earthquake monitoring system which could benefit

the current seismic regional network and have huge economic

and societal effects on the building of early warning systems

over the major hazardous regions.

Earthquakes have significant impacts on society through the

destruction they bring. A local earthquake has the potential

for global impact when one includes societal loss in produc-

tion, energy, health, food and water resources. The ability to

sense earthquake potential could have enormous benefits for

society if the information is used intelligently to relay risk

potential. Much more research is needed in this area, but it

certainly offers a great deal of potential and should be an area

fully supported by the science community. We advocate a size-

able increase in the Earth observations used for land remote

sensing. This will allow us to understand the uncertainty in

such predictions, and realise the social science impacts of earth-

quake prediction.

Nov

RMS Temperature residual 2003-2004 (˚C)

A. Running average T

2003

-T

2004

Terra/MODIS LST night

B. Running average T

2003

-T

2004

Aqua/MODIS LST day

C. Running average T

2003

-T

2004

test area MODIS/Terra LST night

D. Running average T

2003

-T

2004

night air T for Colima

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Colima M7.9 earthquake - January 21, 2003

Joint temperature variations (A, B, and C) satellite, and ground air temperature (D) variations around M7.6 Colima 01.22.2003.

Source: NASA

Bhuj earthquake 2001: Image created by combining Landsat 7 and

SRTM data. The gray area in the middle of the picture shows the city

of Bhuj, which was almost completely destroyed

Photo: NASA/JPL/NGA