Real Risk

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EPUBLIC OF

Tajikistan is the smallest and southern-

most republic of the former Soviet Union. A landlocked

country with a total land area of 143,000 square kilometres,

it shares borders with Uzbekistan to the west and north; the

Kyrgyz Republic to the northeast; China to the east and

Afghanistan to the south. More than 93 per cent of the territory

of Tajikistan is mountainous and only 7 per cent of the land is

arable. Over 72 per cent of the population lives in rural areas.

Tajikistan, one of the countries with the fastest-growing popu-

lation rate in the former Soviet Union, presently has a population

of just over 6 million, with a little more than 10 per cent of the

total population residing in its capital, Dushanbe. The country

gained its independence on 9 September 1991. Since then,

Tajikistan has had to deal with the dual challenges of a collapsed

state-centric political and economic system along with a brutal

civil war which lasted approximately five years. This has been a

challenging period of transition that has included the abrupt

discontinuation of universal social benefits provided by the Soviet

Union, a high level of unemployment with approximately 80 per

cent of the population living below the poverty level, and national

and regional tensions. It is only since the signing of the Peace

Accords in 1997 and with the ensuing relative political, economic,

and social stability that the country has been able to fully concen-

trate on addressing issues regarding its long-term development.

Tajikistan: highly vulnerable to natural hazards

The designation of the International Decade for Natural Disaster

Reduction in 1989 was critical in highlighting the significant

increase in disaster-related loss of life and livelihoods in recent

years. It is estimated that the number of people affected by natural

disasters was three times higher in the 1990s than in the 1970s

and economic losses were five times higher. Moreover, it is

expected that this trend will increase during the 21st century

with issues such as population expansion, displacement, and

environmental degradation all contributing to the increased

vulnerability of populations and infrastructure. Natural disasters

affect all regions and countries, but it is clear that when such

disasters occur in developing or transition countries, they serve

to undo development gains and add further burdens on weak

systems which do not have adequate capacity to respond effec-

tively. The end result is further economic and often social and

political instability.

Due to its geography and climate, Tajikistan is prone to a

number of natural hazards. According to an Asian Disaster

Reduction Centre report, Tajikistan has experienced three of the

ten most severe disasters between 1975 and 2000, according to

the ratio of amount of damage to GDP. In fact, in the span of two

years, 1992-1993, Tajikistan experienced two floods and one land-

slide which together resulted in almost 1,600 deaths and more

than 100,000 people affected.

In addition to these hazards, Tajikistan is located in one of the

most seismically active zones of Central Asia and the world in

general. In the 20th century alone, Tajikistan experienced a

number of major earthquakes which resulted in substantial loss

of life and damage to social and economic infrastructure. The

combined intensity and location of an earthquake in the Western

Pamir mountains in 1911 resulted in a massive landslide cover-

ing the village of Usoi, backing up the Murghab river, creating

Lake Sarez and the world’s highest natural dam. Similarly, the

Khait earthquake in 1949 created a landslide which moved at a

catastrophic speed and buried under it several villages, costing

28,000 lives. Most recently, in 1989 an earthquake 30 km from

Dushanbe, although measuring only 5.3 on the Richter scale,

caused a massive landslide which resulted in 274 deaths and left

more than 30,000 homeless. In addition to these high magni-

tude earthquakes Tajikistan experiences a number of earthquakes

of a lesser magnitude, which may be more isolated in their impact

but still serve to disrupt the lives and livelihoods of thousands.

In recent years, the cultivation of more marginal lands and

increased migration to urban areas, due to the economic pres-

sures in the post-independence era, have created conditions

Disaster risk management in Tajikistan:

a Focus approach

Hadi Husani, Executive Officer, Focus Humanitarian Assistance, USA

Tajikistan has experienced a number of major earthquakes resulting in

loss of life and damage to infrastructure

Photo: Hadi Husani