Real Risk

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VER RECENT DECADES

it has become increasingly likely

that natural hazards will lead to catastrophic conse-

quences. While developed countries are mainly affected

by damages to material assets, developing countries suffer the

loss of 80,000 to 100,000 lives per year due to natural hazards.

Factors contributing to an increase in damages and victims are

widespread. At the same time, it is difficult to assess the increas-

ing danger of a cumulative risk, especially with regard to critical

infrastructure or the influence of global climate change. Natural

hazards constrain the use of available living space, which in turn

imposes social costs. The limitations are most easily observed

in areas where space for settlements, transport and other

requirements is clearly limited by the terrain. Reducing disaster

risk is of vital importance, especially for developing countries.

Sustainable development and poverty reduction have to go

hand-in-hand with disaster risk reduction strategies.

To be able to make effective and efficient decisions for disas-

ter risk reduction and mitigation measures leading to

transparent and comparable results in different risk situations,

a consistent and systematic risk management approach – here-

after referred to as ‘integral risk management’

– has to be

followed. The process contains a systematic framework for risk

analysis and risk assessment procedures, finally leading to

consistent decisions and an optimized, cost-effective and effi-

cient integral planning of measures.

Risk-based management, rather than a purely hazard-related

approach, is key for the future. Dealing with natural hazards

involves contradictory requirements when technical, social,

economic, and ecological aspects have to be balanced. Aside

from risks caused by natural hazards, there are numerous other

risks such as technical, ecological, economic, social or political

ones. The safety and protection of the people and of private and

public goods have to be taken on with this knowledge, and

achieved in a sustainable manner.

Risk and safety

In the public perception, risks due to natural hazards are seen

differently from ecological, technical or social risks. Conflicting

security philosophies do not help to reach consensus on inte-

grated balanced measures. Different ways in which people

perceive risks have an important effect on how they will accept

any measures that are imposed. A strategy for protection from

natural disasters has to find a way to put various risks onto a

common scale to allow for comparability and to serve as a plat-

form from which measures can be agreed upon. Any risk to

humans and the environment must be considered within the

context of social, financial and economic consequences and

increased interdependencies between the various risks. The way

a society handles questions of safety and security may be

summarized by the term ‘risk culture’, which emphasizes that

insecurity can only be controlled by risk-oriented thinking.

Risk governance looks at how risk-related decision-making

unfolds when a multitude of stakeholders or actors is involved,

requiring coordination and possibly reconciliation between a

profusion of roles, perspectives, goals and activities. The actors’

limited problem-solving capacities call for coordinated efforts

even beyond the countries’ frontiers, sectors, hierarchical levels,

disciplines and risk fields. Good risk governance stands for

transparency in decision-making, effectiveness and efficiency of

measures, accountability, strategic focus, sustainability, equity

and fairness, respect for the law and the need for the solution

to be politically and legally realizable as well as ethically and

publicly acceptable.

An integral and holistic approach to disaster risk management

also means that all risks due to natural hazards have to be

considered within the context of risks with technical, biological

or socio-political origins. Integral risk management and good

risk governance are complicated by the fact that many risks

faced by people today are not isolated, single events with a

limited extent, but are often transboundary risks affecting coun-

tries with different political systems and coping strategies.

Integral risk management

Risk management begins with the identification and analysis of

a risk, followed by risk assessment and the planning of

Institutional policy:

a concept for integral risk management

Walter J. Ammann, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL

Integral risk management framework