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tially impact the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall.
Because not all El Niño events are accompanied by the same
climate fluctuations, translating a forecast into sectoral impacts
is a tremendous challenge that requires well-trained and techni-
cally competent human resources.
For the past five years, ADPC has made efforts towards assist-
ing Indonesia in building the conditions that would enable it to
reduce climate risks through the development of an end-to-end
climate generation and application framework. ADPC’s involve-
ment in Indonesia started with the ECE programme, which
documented the impacts of and the institutional responses to
past extreme climate events in Indonesia, focusing on the 1997-
1998 El Niño and the La Niña (cooling of the eastern tropical
Pacific) that followed. ECE was undertaken in collaboration with
national and local partners.
Based on ECE documentation, ADPC identified further
research and capacity building needs for mitigating the societal
and economic impacts of climate events. Hence, implementation
of the CFA programme was initiated. The application of climate
information entails incorporating such information (e.g. past
climate, seasonal climate forecast) to change or influence a deci-
sion regarding future actions. For example, armed with a forecast
of rainfall deficit, farmers switch to crops that require less water.
The ultimate goal of the CFA programme is to improve the perfor-
mance of climate-sensitive sectors.
ADPC-initiated efforts to institutionalize climate forecast
applications
ADPC’s goal is to assist Indonesia and Philippines in developing
a robust and sustainable end-to-end climate information gener-
ation and application system. The programme’s approach is
two-fold: first, it carries out targeted demonstration sites to
explore and refine tools and risk management strategies. Armed
with the lessons learnt from demonstration sites, the programme
will move towards strengthening national capacities to scale up
the application of methods elsewhere in the region. The CFA
project is initially working in four sites (two in each country) to
demonstrate how climate forecast applications may be utilized
in managing climate-related risks.
The two sites in Indonesia represent different agro-ecological
zones and are embedded within different institutional systems –
Kupang, Nusa Tenggara Timur is a dry land agricultural system
while Indramayu, West Java is located at the tail-end of an irri-
gation system. Both sites are exceptionally vulnerable not only to
extreme climate events, but also to the annual seasonal cycle. In
Indramayu, more than 80 per cent of annual crop losses are due
to droughts and floods. In Kupang, false rains are a serious
problem. As farmers usually sow seeds during false rains only to
lose them, these are responsible for routinely pushing farmers to
the brink of food insecurity. In both sites, the ability to anticipate
how climate will change from one year to the next will reduce
damages and lead to better management of agriculture, water
supply, fisheries and other resources.
The steps undertaken by ADPC in implementing the CFA
programme include:
• Understanding climate variability and impacts at local level
• Understanding stakeholders’ demands for forecast products
• Creating an enabling environment for climate forecast uptake,
such as making sure that support institutions make credit
and agricultural inputs available to farmers
• Capacity-building for institutions for translating and commu-
nicating forecast products
• Ensuring partnership development between producers and
users of forecasts
• Processing and delivery of localized forecast information
• Demonstration of climate information’s potential value
• Policy advocacy at all levels
• Replication.
A key feature that distinguishes the CFA programme from other
climate forecast applications initiatives is the effort to ensure that
the climate science research component, which will ultimately
lead to the development of forecast products for the demonstra-
tion sites, is driven by the demands identified by the stakeholders.
Results
In a huge district like Indramayu with a very heterogeneous rain-
fall pattern, BMG responded to stakeholder needs by downscaling
seasonal forecasting in spatial terms, i.e. dividing the district into
different rainfall regions and producing a forecast for each region.
Information regarding the varying dates of onset and termination
for rain in different parts of the district is instrumental in setting
up a cropping strategy (e.g. dry seeding vs. wet seeding) as well
as in determining the timing of planting activities. In Kupang, the
CFA programme has institutionalized a sustained dialogue
between forecast providers and users. Progress in developing fore-
cast products proved to be a lot slower in Kupang because of the
scarcity of rainfall data.
On the application side, the CFA programme’s efforts to stim-
ulate local capacities for implementing climate risk management
strategies resulted in innovative approaches that are initiated by
the programme stakeholders themselves. One such initiative is
the Climate Field School (CFS), which the district of Indramayu
piloted in 2003 with support from the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), OFDA, Bogor Agricultural
Institute (IPB), and BMG.
The CFS employs practical and field-based learning for agri-
cultural extension workers and farmers to enhance their expertise
in using climate forecasts to make appropriate farming-related
decisions. While dialogues between farmers and extension
workers formally extend over two seasons only, the CFS has
become a permanent institutional mechanism that connects
producers of climate information, intermediaries (agricultural
extension workers), and end users (small-scale farmers). BMG
has been utilizing this mechanism to distribute seasonal forecasts
and post-mortem forecast evaluation, as well as to evaluate user
responses to forecasts.
Farmers who participated in the CFS gained a systematic appre-
ciation of climate variability as well as a better understanding of
the probabilistic nature of climate forecasts. For example, in a
normal wet season (October-March), rains arrive by mid-October.
Based on the farmers’ experience, rains may be delayed but only
until the end of November at the latest. The district agriculture
office, with the help of BMG, reinforced this perception by present-
ing graphs showing climatological data for the past 30 years.
The farmers’ perception, reinforced by scientific data, led them
to revise their cropping practices. To adapt to this variability in wet
season onset, with confidence that rains would come, some
farmers revised their cropping calendars and changed their plant-
ing strategies from water-intensive transplanting back to direct
seeding (gogo rancah). Gogo rancah is a mitigation measure
against both flood and drought that makes the planting of rice
viable even if rainfall is low, as long as it is frequent. And because
it allows early planting (mid- to late-October), paddies are already
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