Risk Wise

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The NDMF provides for the establishment of a Technical Advisory

Committee (TAC) comprising nationally recognized specialists in

the hazards, vulnerabilities and disaster risks being assessed. In estab-

lishing standards and exercising quality control, the TAC will ensure

that uniform methodology is used for assessments, that all disaster

risk management planning and practice is based on scientifically

sound risk assessments, and that those commissioning disaster risk

assessments can access advice and technical support.

Early warning systems

Early warning systems relating to fire are maintained through the

Advanced Fire Information System (AFIS) and the Fire Danger Index

(FDI). Both use satellite technology combined with geographical

information systems (GIS) and short messaging service (SMS) tech-

nology to monitor fire events and warn relevant role players.

The FDI is a web mapping application that combines data gathered

from weather stations throughout South Africa. This is then orga-

nized and processed to provide an input to the FDI model that

determines the weather conditions conducive to fire events. The final

product is an ESRI ArcIMS map showing areas at high risk for that

time. The FDI is updated twice daily and SMS is used to inform the

relevant role players of the fire risk status for their areas.

AFIS is the first near-real-time operational satellite fire monitoring

system in southern Africa. Satellite technology is employed to

monitor live fires at up to 15-minute intervals and display these on

a web mapping application. The Satellite Application Centre is in

the process of customizing and further developing AFIS to enable

not only the detection of fires but also the prediction and assessment

of future fire events.

The NDMC has a mandate to gather, collate, analyse and dissem-

inate relevant information about disaster events as specified by the

Disaster Management Act. Communication of these events is

managed through web applications, cellular technology and e-mail.

The Situation Reporting application enables role players to capture

Case study: Air pollution in South Durban,

KwaZulu-Natal

Vulnerable communities are adversely affected by the low-

level, long-term risks of living in close contact with the

environment. South Durban provides an important example

of human vulnerability to air pollution. Durban is the largest

industrial centre of the eThekwini Metropolitan Area, where

working class communities live in close proximity to

chemical and other ‘dirty’ industries, and are exposed to

the accompanying health risks. This industrial region

includes the nation’s largest petroleum refinery, its second-

largest petrochemical factory, and 180 smokestack

operations. The complex land-use mix is compounded by

the geography of the area, the topography being a basin,

with frequent inversion layers and poor air circulation that

cause aggravating air pollution problems.

The scale and scope of the air pollution problem in South

Durban has been fiercely contested over the years, abetted

by a shortage of reliable information on the true extent of

the problem. The area has seen intensifying environmental

activism since the early 1990s, particularly from

organizations such as the South Durban Environmental

Alliance, an umbrella organization.

Until recently, little incentive or coercion existed for

companies in South Durban to adhere to environmental

emission standards. Despite a comprehensive framework

of environmental legislation, enforcement in the area has

been weak due to a lack of external monitoring and

enforcement capacity.

In an effort to find a sustainable solution to the poor air

quality problem in the South Durban Basin, the Government

initiated the South Durban Basin Multi Point Plan (MPP),

which received multi-stakeholder endorsement in May

2000 and cabinet approval in October 2000. Key project

areas include establishing a modern air quality

management system comprising 11 air quality monitoring

stations; undertaking a health study to measure exposure

levels; setting air pollution standards; and phasing out

polluting fuels in an effort to reduce sulphur dioxide and

fugitive gas emissions.

The MPP has contributed to a 45 per cent reduction in

sulphur dioxide emissions and to the phasing out of fuels

with excessive sulphur content. It has also initiated an

investment of over ZAR1 billion from industries that

contributed to the sulphur dioxide reduction plan. Further

reductions in sulphur dioxide emissions are anticipated

over the next few years through continuing regulatory

intervention.

South Durban is a good example of how participatory

processes involving stakeholders, the local community,

government and industry, form the pivotal component in

making MPP a reality and, most important, in delivering

quantifiable results.

One outcome of the MPP is that the Government is

considering other potential pollution hotspots in the

country, such as the Vaal Triangle. These could be declared

priority areas under the new Air Quality Act, and therefore

deemed suitable for the MPP approach in dealing with air

pollution, which in turn could help to address human

vulnerability.

July 2007 wildfires in Mpumalanga

Image: Working on Fire

events and their associated properties on web-based

applications with spatial and non-spatial attributes for

the events repository hosted in the NDMC database.

Provincial, district and local role players can use the

NDMC database, together with web mapping technol-

ogy, to generate reports on events based on temporal,

spatial or attribute levels in the form of maps, graphs

and reports.