Elements for Life

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NDIA

DUE TO

its unique geography and climatology, is

prone to a large spectrum of natural disasters ranging from

avalanches in the snow-clad Himalayan slopes, to tsunamis

and tropical cyclones along the coasts in the southern penin-

sula. Floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes and landslides

have been recurrent phenomena. About 60 per cent of the land-

mass is prone to earthquakes of various intensities; over 40

million hectares is prone to floods; about eight per cent of the

total area is prone to cyclones and 68 per cent of the area is

susceptible to drought.

Between 1990 and 2000, an average of 4,344 people lost their

lives and about 30 million people were affected by disasters

every year. Increasing population densities, changing land-use

patterns and climate have contributed to the vulnerability,

particularly to that of the poverty-ridden communities in the

region. These factors are set to exacerbate as time goes on,

leading to irreparable damages affecting sustained develop-

ment. The major positive aspect is that due to the intricate

linkages among these issues, actions initiated to mitigate the

effects of any one will have collateral benefits.

The climate change context

Climate change is not only a major global environmental

problem, but is also an issue of great concern to a developing

country like India. The changes observed in the regional

climate have already affected many of the physical and biolog-

ical systems and there are indications that social and economic

systems have also been affected. Climate change is likely to

threaten food production, increase water stress and decrease

its availability, resulting in a rise in sea level that could flood

crop fields and coastal settlements, and increase the occurrence

of diseases such as malaria.

India is a large developing country with a population of over

one billion, whose growth is projected to continue in the

coming decades. Its rural populations depend largely on the

agriculture sector, followed by forests and fisheries for their

Adapting to climate change through

resilience to natural disasters

Sanjiv Nair, G Srinivasan and KJ Ramesh,

Department of Science & Technology, New Delhi, India

Climate change scenarios over India produced by Hadley Center PRECIS Regional Climate Model showing

expected changes in number of rainy days (left panel) and rainfall intensity (mmday-1) of rainy days

Source: : Krishna Kumar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India